A Calm Before the Fed: Bitcoin Hovers Near 91K as Markets Brace for Policy Surprises
BTC grinds sideways into the Fed meeting while liquidation maps tighten, macro scenarios diverge, and on-chain signals hint at a deeper shift.
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin is holding near 91,000 USD, with weekend price action validating the tight liquidation bands on both sides of the market. Today’s structure suggests a possible probe toward 92,000 USD before revisiting the 87,000 USD support area.
The main event this week is Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision — and specifically whether the Fed unveils a bond-buying program. If such a scheme is announced, the size and timing will determine how risk assets respond.
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⚙️ Technical Picture
The potential outcomes around the Fed fall into three broad paths:
1. Standard rate cut with vague forward guidance
In this scenario, BTC likely fails near 96,000 USD and resumes its downtrend. Lack of clarity on future easing tends to trigger defensive positioning.
2. Larger-than-expected bond-buying program starting immediately
This would be a significant shift. BTC could surge toward 107,000 USD, with a pullback toward 98,000 USD offering a potential re-entry before further upside.
3. Modest bond-buying program starting in January, below market expectations
A false breakout toward 102,000 USD becomes likely, trapping late buyers before a dip to minor new lows — which would also create a constructive buy zone.
Technically, the weekly MACD is at its weakest level since early 2023, closely resembling the final leg of the previous bear cycle. To validate this signal, the three-day chart shows clear bearish divergence as the recovery off the lows fades.
📊 On-Chain & Market Flow
On-chain conditions, however, paint a more nuanced picture. Stablecoin-rich whale wallets increased BTC exposure last week and have not taken significant profits since. Their positioning suggests confidence in a short-term trend shift.
Another constructive development comes from the improving Mean Dollar Invested Age metric, which often reflects renewed conviction among long-term holders. A falling line signals higher transaction activity — typically a bullish precursor when aligned with whale behavior.
Our momentum model continues to drift lower, but the daily rate of decline is slowing ahead of the Fed. This fits neatly with a market preparing for a larger move once policy clarity arrives.
One standout asset in our tracking is 1inch, which appears strongest across multiple views in our internal models. Retail positioning has flipped net short, while broader conditions imply a short-term upside target near 0.026.
💬 Final Thoughts
Markets are in a quiet holding pattern until the Fed provides direction. The liquidation structure supports a 92K → 87K path in the near term, but larger moves will depend entirely on policy details. A heavy easing package could end the downtrend outright; a modest or delayed plan could produce one more lower low before recovery.
Either way, the coming week will likely set the tone for December and early 2026.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term — Pending
Remaining patient into the Fed meeting.
Medium-Term — Pending
Same stance — waiting for clarity and potential deep-value entries.
Long-Term — Long
Expecting no major bond-buying surprise from the Fed yet. Position unchanged.
Entry: 79,000 USD
Stop: 65,000 USD
Target: 180,000 USD
Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research or consult a professional adviser before making investment decisions.