Before the Next Wave: Bitcoin’s November Setup || Nov 1, 2025
Bitcoin steadies above $110K after option expiries and ETF outflows shake markets into month-end.
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin is trading back above the $110K level after a volatile Friday driven by options expiration flows, month-end rebalancing, and adoption headlines.
ETF data showed nearly $1 billion in weekly outflows, marking the third straight day of redemptions — a sign of cautious positioning before macro catalysts.
Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller hinted that recent data supports a December rate cut, yet the unresolved U.S. government shutdown remains a drag on risk assets — and a key cap on Bitcoin’s next breakout potential.
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⚙️ Technical Picture
October’s monthly close was better than feared — BTC held the $108,200 base and reclaimed $110K into November.
The new monthly Pivot Point ($113,122) will act as the key reference for directional bias.
A sustained break above that level could signal a fresh up-leg toward $116K–$118K, while a failure would imply further range-bound trading below resistance.
📊 Market Positioning
💡 Open Interest: OI peaked just above $111K — Bitcoin needs to stabilize there to unlock higher targets.
💡 Leverage: Recent short-build and forced liquidations create conditions for a counter-move higher.
💡 ETF Flows: Despite outflows, funding rates and spot buying remain steady — a sign that long-term holders aren’t panicking.
🔗 On-Chain Activity
Bitcoin’s Daily Active Addresses show sustained green momentum — a rare pattern that historically precedes major uptrends.
Meanwhile, the Percentage of Supply in Profit reset after this week’s drop, signaling healthy cool-off conditions for a new leg higher.
The Mean Dollar Invested Age is also turning lower — a bullish on-chain indicator showing dormant wallets are becoming active again.
🧠 Momentum & Model View
Our momentum model indicates a renewed short-term buy signal on the 12-hour time frame — often a precursor to multi-day price extensions.
Sentiment data from top margin traders suggest targets near $115K–$116K, a shift from last week’s bearish bias.
Together, these signals imply that the market may be approaching an important inflection zone rather than a breakdown.
💬 Final Thoughts
Bitcoin looks ready to enter a “prove it” phase around the monthly pivot — and a retest of the $107K–$106K zone can’t be ruled out before a stronger run.
As liquidity conditions and Fed expectations stabilize, the risk-reward setup for November leans constructive.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term (Days): Neutral / Volatile
Medium-Term (Weeks): Bullish above $116K
Long-Term (Months): Cycle target ~ $230K unless $72K fails
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