Bitcoin Cools Off Into Thanksgiving as Volatility Compresses Again || Nov 26, 2025
Bitcoin drifts sideways despite risk-on equities and a weaker dollar, with holiday liquidity thinning and option flows capping near-term momentum.
Bitcoin is slowing into the Thanksgiving period, barely reacting to the NASDAQ’s strength or Tuesday’s dollar softness. Even supportive headlines — from the incoming Fed Chair to tentative progress in Ukraine — failed to budge price action. Liquidity is thinning, and the market feels like it’s waiting for next week.
Current positioning suggests BTC could need a little more time before making another attempt toward the large liquidation pocket around 91,700 USD. An additional drag may be Friday’s options expiry: roughly 84% of contracts sit above 91,000 USD, and most of them expire worthless at current spot levels.
A wide consolidation is developing, and while it remains directionless, the bias leans toward an eventual push into the 93,000–94,000 USD zone — the same area that aligns with the top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud, reinforcing the notion of choppy range trading until a clean breakout occurs.
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⚙️ Technical Picture
Bitcoin is boxed inside a tightening structure with shrinking volatility. Short-term patterns and liquidity clusters both point toward 93,000–94,000 USD as the magnet if price can lift.
The risk remains that this entire structure turns into a “reset” move before continuation — the same pattern traders often label a dead-cat bounce.
The more uncomfortable scenario is a deeper leg lower. A retest of the 200-week moving average remains on the table, especially considering that correlated names like MSTR have already visited their long-term baselines.
The tactical trade described by many short-biased traders is straightforward: invalidation is above 94,800 USD, while downside optionality remains wide, with 78,000 USD as a realistic extension if momentum breaks.
For those avoiding outright BTC shorts, some prefer proxy exposure through alts sitting near resistance — such as assets around 38 USD or 100 USD — where asymmetry can be cleaner.
📊 On-Chain & Market Flow
Our model shows conditions that remain cautious rather than supportive. Momentum signals look nothing like the dip-buying windows seen in March–April; back then, price action looked pressured but constructive. Now it’s the opposite: the market seems comfortable staying soft.
The implication is simple: traders should treat upside with moderation until flows meaningfully improve.
💬 Final Thoughts
Holiday weeks distort liquidity, and Bitcoin is behaving accordingly. The market feels like it’s waiting for either a fresh macro catalyst or for options expiry to clear out positioning overhead. As long as BTC stays under the 93–94K band, short-term risk leans two-sided and choppy.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term: Neutral / Volatile
Conditions are unresolved; a move toward the 93–94K band remains possible.
Medium-Term: Bullish above 120,000 USD
Structure remains intact as long as BTC avoids deeper breakdowns.
Long-Term: Cycle target near 230,000 USD unless 72,000 USD fails
Broader view unchanged; long-term positioning stays valid.