Bitcoin Eyes Recovery After Hitting $103.5K — Can Bulls Reclaim $107K? || Oct 18, 2025
Post-tariff rebound sparks cautious optimism as BTC tests key technical and structural supports
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin is attempting to rebound toward the $107,000 area after plunging to $103,500 on Friday, as risk-off sentiment in Europe drove broad selling across risk assets.
The recovery began after President Trump stated that 100% tariffs on China are “not sustainable”, and hinted that the deadline could be extended beyond November. That comment brought a sigh of relief to traders fearing further escalation in U.S.–China tensions.
Still, ongoing deleveraging and a flight to gold remain dominant themes. With macro uncertainty high, Bitcoin lacks a strong bullish catalyst this weekend — unless fresh positive trade headlines arrive.
Meanwhile, some market strategists warn that the Fed’s liquidity management could be too restrictive for financial markets, a potential headwind for crypto if liquidity continues to tighten.
📉 Bitcoin Technicals
Bitcoin has met the downside target of its bearish Head & Shoulders pattern, halting the latest selloff and opening the door for a potential rebound.
If the bounce extends toward $116,000, a bullish inverted Head & Shoulders pattern could form — setting the stage for a much larger move higher.
However, there are two key risks still in play:
BTC closed below its 200-day SMA for the first time since April. While not catastrophic, history shows such breaks can lead to further dips before recovery.
A new minor low around $102,500 — or even a full test of the 365-day MA near $99,000 — remains possible if the bounce loses steam.
In short, Bitcoin needs to regain the 200-day SMA quickly to restore technical confidence.
🧱 Structural Issues
BTC has now closed back inside the former range that bulls defended through September. The weekly close will be crucial — a shallow close inside the range would be acceptable, but a deep one risks breaking structural integrity.
From a macro view, markets are in a holding pattern until the last week of October, when key events converge:
Fed decision
Major earnings reports
Updated tariff deadlines
This suggests Bitcoin could consolidate sideways until clearer macro direction emerges.
📊 Personal Take
Bitcoin’s rebound from a major Fibonacci retracement zone (the 50% level between the April low and ATH) is encouraging. That test often marks the completion of corrective waves.
If that pattern holds true, BTC may begin a gradual recovery next week.
But failure to sustain momentum could trigger one final dip — possibly lining up with a mid-week buy signal from our shorter-term model.
Liquidation maps also show unfilled long clusters near $102,500, meaning some market participants may still be waiting for one last sweep lower before a proper reversal begins.
🧠 On-Chain & Model Signals
Bitcoin’s Daily Active Address (DAA) count remains strong, forming healthy blocks of green — similar to the behavior seen in March–April, right before the previous rally.
Historically, sustained DAA strength precedes powerful upside moves, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution at current levels.
Our trend model (formerly Atlas) jumped sharply again, reflecting ongoing selling pressure — but that may actually be constructive. The model now sits deep in oversold territory, where nearly all major historical Bitcoin rallies have begun.
Oversold models plus heavy on-chain activity often precede trend reversals — a reason for cautious optimism.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term (Days): Pending. BTC likely consolidates between $103K–$107K before directional clarity returns.
Medium-Term (Weeks): Long bias remains. A break and hold above $120K would confirm strength; profit-taking zone $140K–$160K.
Long-Term (Months): Cycle projection toward $230K remains valid unless $72K fails.
🧭 Strategy Notes
Bounce from 50% Fibonacci retracement supports potential recovery.
Below 200-day SMA warrants caution — watch for reclaim.
Strong DAA growth signals accumulation phase.
Model oversold zone hints that major bottom formation may be underway.
🔑 Key Takeaways
BTC rebounds toward $107K after Trump tariff comments ease tension
Head & Shoulders target met — possible inverted setup forming
Closed below 200-day SMA but holding key Fibonacci support
Strong on-chain activity hints at rebound potential
Oversold model readings align with historical bottom conditions
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