Bitcoin Pulls Back Toward $108K as Market Awaits Technical Confirmation || Oct 21, 2025
Tariff worries and leveraged positioning trigger mild correction after Sunday’s short squeeze
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin slipped lower on Tuesday after bulls failed to extend Sunday’s rally, retreating toward the $108,000 USD zone. The move appears driven by a mix of tariff concerns, leveraged positioning, and profit-taking after a brief short squeeze.
Fears that 100% tariffs on China could take effect from November 1st without a trade deal have reintroduced risk aversion across global markets. Meanwhile, many leveraged traders joined late on Monday, creating an imbalance as long positions now outweigh shorts — a setup that often invites volatility.
📅 We publish fresh crypto market analysis every day — and four issues each week are free for all readers.
If you’re new here, welcome aboard — the full post continues below.
⚙️ Bitcoin Technical Picture
Bitcoin has retraced back to the 50% Fibonacci level from last week’s low to this week’s high — a natural support zone where buyers typically reappear.
This level also aligns with the 200-day simple moving average, reinforcing its importance as the first line of defense for bulls.
If BTC holds this area, the $113,000–$113,700 region becomes the next likely rebound target.
However:
A break below the 50% level puts $107,400 (critical) and $105,600 (higher low) in play.
Below those, risk rises for a deeper slide toward $100,000–$99,000.
🧭 The Ichimoku View
Zooming out, the weekly Ichimoku chart paints a clear picture:
BTC must hold above $109,600 to avoid triggering a larger drop-off this week.
On shorter time frames, particularly the 1-hour Ichimoku, $108,000 stands out as the critical pivot. Weakness below that level gives control back to short-term bears, while a close above it could spark a fast rebound.
🧠 Model Insights
According to our model, market conditions remain cautious, with limited evidence yet of a clear reversal. Short-term dynamics still suggest a period of consolidation between $105.6K–$109K before any sustained rally can form.
Our momentum framework also points to ongoing short-term pressure, aligning with the current pullback.
Positioning data shows that top traders remain cautious, reinforcing the short-term defensive tone in the market.
📊 On-Chain Overview
Despite the technical weakness, on-chain metrics remain strong:
Daily Active Addresses (DAA) continue to grow, signaling ongoing network engagement.
Shark addresses are accumulating BTC aggressively.
Exchange balances keep dropping — a positive long-term signal showing reduced sell pressure.
These indicators reinforce the idea that smart money accumulation continues beneath the surface.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term (Days): Long bias, awaiting confirmation from the model. Key support $108K, critical defense $105.6K.
Medium-Term (Weeks): Long; structure strengthens above $115K. Profit-taking zone $140K–$160K.
Long-Term (Months): Cycle projection toward $230K remains valid unless $72K fails.
🔑 Key Takeaways
BTC pulls back toward $108K after Sunday’s short squeeze
50% retracement + 200-day MA offers immediate support
Tariff uncertainty and leveraged imbalance pressure prices
Model plateauing hints at bottoming behavior
Strong on-chain signals suggest continued accumulation
🔔 Premium Signals 👉 Access premium signals
This newsletter is published daily on Substack.