Bitcoin Rebounds Toward $115K as Powell Hints at End of Fed Tightening || Oct 15, 2025
Liquidity boost hopes and strong spot bids fuel optimism despite market caution
đȘ Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin staged a much-needed bounce from the 110,000 USD level after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted that the central bankâs multi-year balance sheet reduction could be nearing an end. Powell acknowledged that liquidity conditions were showing signs of âgradual tightening,â signaling a possible shift toward easier monetary policy â a clearly bullish development for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Adding to the optimism, billionaire Paul Tudor Jones said he expects the Nasdaq to climb sharply by the end of 2025, supported by rate cuts, strong corporate earnings, and progress in U.S.âChina trade talks. He identified late October 2025 as a pivotal moment â aligning with the broader view that a full trade resolution may not come until 2026.
đ Current Range & Invalidation
As expected, Bitcoin tested 110,000 USD after failing to hold 113,700 USD, then rebounded strongly. The immediate challenge is reclaiming that same 113.7K level to re-establish bullish control.
If BTC can sustain momentum above 113,700 USD, a move toward 116,000â117,000 USD becomes likely, with a potential breakout target near 120,000 USD later this week.
However, traders should note a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern still visible on the daily chart, which projects a downside risk of roughly 6,000 USD. A decisive move above 116,000 USD would invalidate that pattern and likely trigger short liquidations clustered around 122,000 USD.
đč Book Structure
During yesterdayâs dip below 110K, spot market bids surged dramatically, tripling the size seen during Septemberâs 107Kâ108K rebounds. This strong buy-side liquidity is a major reason the market recovered so swiftly.
If BTC holds above 112,000 USD, bulls will likely intensify efforts to retest 113.7K â a key short-term pivot. Demark indicators imply some consolidation may occur first before another breakout attempt.
The renewed bid strength also underscores growing institutional participation, even as overall sentiment remains fragile following last weekâs liquidation shock.
đ ETF Watch
The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) continues to serve as a bellwether for institutional confidence. After breaking below support early Monday, the fund rebounded strongly to fill the opening gap â a constructive technical sign.
Resistance: 64.45 â breakout level toward 67.05
Support: 62.98 â key downside buffer
ETF activity remains a crucial driver for Bitcoinâs price structure, particularly as network growth metrics lag behind. This gap underscores how reliant the market has become on ETF inflows to sustain higher valuations â and highlights the risk if major ETF redemptions occur in the future.
âïž Market Indicators
Our trend model continues to tick higher, signaling that bearish momentum has not fully faded. Historically, such moves either precede a short-term sell phase or mark a final exhaustion spike before a reversal. Given the strong bid backdrop, the latter seems more likely.
Other proprietary indicators remain neutral, supporting the view that the market may stay in limbo briefly before resuming higher. With the Nasdaqâs 92% correlation to Bitcoin and multiple Demark warnings in equities, risk sentiment still hinges on how stock markets trade this week.
đŻ Strategy Outlook
Short-Term (Days): Pending. Bounce is encouraging but confirmation needed â watch 113.7K breakout and 112K support.
Medium-Term (Weeks): Long bias intact; structure improves materially above 120K. Two consecutive weekly closes above that level would signal a new leg higher toward 140Kâ160K.
Long-Term (Months): Cycle projection toward 230K unchanged unless 72K breaks.
đ§ Strategy Notes
Powellâs liquidity comments reintroduce macro tailwinds for crypto.
Spot order book remains heavily bid, indicating accumulation.
113.7K reclaim is the key to shifting short-term sentiment.
Watch ETF behavior as a leading indicator for renewed risk appetite.
đ Key Takeaways
Powellâs dovish tone sparks recovery across risk assets.
Spot bids tripled, reinforcing market bottom near 110K.
Head-and-shoulders pattern invalidates above 116K, targets 122K.
ETF flows remain central to BTCâs trajectory.
Macro backdrop improving, but sentiment still fragile.
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