Bitcoin began to stabilize this week after sentiment reached deeply pessimistic levels. Traders had largely given up on the idea of a near-term recovery, and historically, such extreme sentiment readings often precede relief rallies.
Indeed, short-term momentum has started to improve. Our primary momentum model has begun to turn lower from extreme territory, suggesting that the immediate path of least resistance may now be to the upside. This typically reflects:
Crowded short positioning
Exhausted selling pressure
Thin liquidity conditions
Late sellers becoming trapped
However, it is important to emphasize that the model remains inside a broader bearish regime. While reversals within extreme zones can mark the beginning of stabilization, they do not automatically confirm a durable bullish reversal.
Historically, the highest-probability reversals occur after a final spike in downside momentum, followed by the first meaningful lower high in that momentum reading. That sequence often signals that selling pressure has truly exhausted itself.
At present, the setup supports the possibility of a rebound toward the $73,000–$75,000 area. But structurally, the broader bottoming process may not yet be complete. Based on historical cycle behavior and technical confluence, a deeper test toward the $55,000–$50,000 region in the coming months still fits the larger picture.
Trend Confirmation Still Missing
While lower time frames show signs of improvement, higher time frame trend models remain firmly bearish. No confirmed higher-timeframe buy signals are currently in place.
Statistically, weekly trend confirmations carry the highest reliability. Until such signals emerge, rallies should be treated as counter-trend advances within a corrective environment rather than the start of a new impulsive cycle.
What to Watch Next Week
A sustained daily improvement in trend momentum could open the door to a push toward $73,000–$75,000.
Weekly confirmation remains unlikely in the near term.
Failure to build follow-through above recent highs would reinforce the idea that this is a relief bounce, not a regime shift.
Bottom line:
Bitcoin has likely entered a short-term recovery phase driven by sentiment exhaustion. But without higher-timeframe confirmation, the broader structure still argues for caution. A deeper cyclical reset remains a credible scenario before a sustainable uptrend can resume.
