Bitcoin Slips Back to $113K as China Sanctions Hit Risk Assets || Oct 14, 2025
ETF resilience and strong order book bids offer hope, but macro tension keeps sentiment fragile
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure on Tuesday, slipping back toward 113,000 USD after briefly touching 116,000 USD in late U.S. trading. The catalyst came from China imposing new sanctions on five U.S.-linked companies, sparking another wave of geopolitical risk aversion across global markets.
U.S. futures are trading lower, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 flashing Demark exhaustion signals, warning that a short-term correction could be underway.
On a positive note, the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) bounced cleanly from key technical support on Monday — an encouraging sign that institutional positioning remains constructive, as long as that support band holds.
📊 Order Book Rules
Spot order books continue to show strong bid activity on every significant dip since last week’s crash. According to HyblockCapital data, current bid size has doubled compared to yesterday’s levels — a sign of strong demand and a probable short-term bounce building.
Interestingly, the previous rally from 108,400 USD to all-time highs occurred with minimal bid support, implying that the current structure is far more accumulation-driven than before.
⚖️ Divergence Watch
Technically, Bitcoin remains at a crossroads.
Bullish momentum divergence extends up to 120,000 USD, keeping the door open for another upward retest if buyers reclaim control.
However, bearish daily MACD divergence stretches down toward 110,000 USD, suggesting potential downside before stabilization.
To maintain the bullish structure, BTC must reclaim 113,700 USD — the rebound high immediately after Friday’s crash. Losing this level could trigger another test of 110K.
📈 Eyeing the IBIT
The IBIT ETF, one of the largest Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, tested critical support between 65.00 and 64.00 USD and saw strong buying interest emerge. As long as price stays above this region, the medium-term upside scenario (90–110 USD) remains valid.
ETF stability is essential for sustaining institutional confidence — if weakness persists under this area, short-term sentiment for BTC could deteriorate quickly.
🌐 Market Positioning
Our internal metrics point to a mixed but cautious backdrop:
Trend models have ticked higher again, signaling growing bearish momentum.
The Long vs Short ratio shows that top traders are positioned for lower prices, consistent with near-term bearish pressure.
Still, the order book bids suggest deep-pocketed buyers are preparing to defend key zones.
The Kingfisher liquidation map supports that view — most major long liquidations occurred last week, while current short liquidation clusters sit around 122,000 USD, a likely upside magnet if BTC can regain its footing.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term (Days): No active signal. Watch for reclaim above 113.7K to confirm a rebound; risk extends to 110K if it fails.
Medium-Term (Weeks): Long bias intact; structure improves once BTC holds above 120K. Profit-taking remains targeted between 140K–160K.
Long-Term (Months): Cycle projection toward 230K remains valid unless 72K breaks.
🧭 Strategy Notes
Macro risks remain elevated after China’s sanctions.
ETF resilience suggests institutional confidence still intact.
Bid accumulation hints at a potential reversal zone forming.
Watch 113.7K reclaim for near-term directional confirmation.
🔑 Key Takeaways
BTC retreats to 113K as China sanctions weigh on sentiment
Order book bids double, signaling accumulation and rebound potential
ETF support zone (64–65 USD) key to institutional confidence
Mixed divergences: bullish up to 120K, bearish down to 110K
Short liquidations at 122K could act as a magnet if recovery begins
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