Bitcoin Stalls Below 200-Day MA as Bulls Eye $108K Rebound || Oct 19, 2025
Quiet weekend trading masks growing setup for volatility ahead of key macro week
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin spent the weekend trading sideways, struggling to regain the 200-day moving average near $107,400 USD. The $107,000 zone remains the key technical battleground — a level that both bulls and bears have repeatedly defended in recent sessions.
Sundays are often when volatility returns, as market makers re-enter low-volume conditions. If bulls manage to push through the 200-day MA, a move toward $108,400–$109,100 becomes likely.
Macro newsflow has been limited, but reports indicate that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet China’s Vice Premier in Malaysia next week, potentially laying groundwork for progress in trade talks.
Additionally, the CPI and PMI reports, both delayed by the U.S. government shutdown, will drop on Friday — setting up a volatile close to the week.
💰 Broader Market Context
Gold and equities remain critical to watch in the coming sessions.
Gold reached a major Fibonacci target on Friday and now faces a Demark sell signal, suggesting potential short-term exhaustion.
U.S. stocks, meanwhile, continue to display remarkable resilience, shrugging off macro jitters.
A brief pause or pullback in gold — paired with stable equities — could provide a relief tailwind for Bitcoin, particularly if capital rotates back into risk assets.
📊 Bitcoin Technical Picture
Technically, Bitcoin remains pinned below resistance, with mixed signals across time frames:
Failure to reclaim $107,000–$107,400 could trigger a retest of $105,600, a level likely to confirm a local low.
A clean break below that zone, however, opens risk toward $100,000–$99,000, aligning with longer-term moving average supports.
Meanwhile, liquidation maps show a dense block of short liquidations sitting above current price levels — implying that any squeeze higher could accelerate rapidly.
Notably, the monthly pivot point near $113,000 aligns with the top of the liquidation cluster, reinforcing it as a logical upside magnet if momentum returns.
⚖️ Positioning & Sentiment
Market data shows a 63.3% seller bias — far higher than the typical 70–80% bullish skew. This imbalance creates the ideal conditions for a short squeeze, particularly if Bitcoin breaks the 200-day average.
Retail traders also appear close to flipping net short, which historically has marked major market bottoms.
Simultaneously, on-chain data highlights continued accumulation behavior:
Daily Active Addresses (DAA) just printed their largest spike in six months, even on a quiet Saturday.
Spot market bids remain steady, reinforcing demand in the background.
🧠 Model Insights
Our model continues to show elevated readings — up another 18 points — signaling that bearish momentum remains in play. These rapid daily jumps typically precede late-stage selling exhaustion, where downside potential fades just as momentum peaks.
The weekly trend model also looks set to close red for only the fourth time this year, a rare event that historically has preceded strong multi-week rebounds.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term (Days): Pending. Watching for a break above $107.4K to confirm bullish intent. Failure risks a slide toward $105.6K or lower.
Medium-Term (Weeks): Long bias maintained; key structural level $107K must hold. Strength confirmed above $120K; profit-taking zone $140K–$160K.
Long-Term (Months): Cycle projection toward $230K remains valid unless $72K fails.
🧭 Strategy Notes
Quiet weekend could precede sharp volatility Monday–Friday.
Macro focus: CPI, PMI, and U.S.–China trade headlines.
Strong on-chain DAA suggests bottom formation is still progressing.
Retail capitulation + short squeeze setup forming a classic reversal mix.
🔑 Key Takeaways
BTC consolidates below 200-day MA (~$107.4K)
$107K remains key structural level for bulls to defend
Short squeeze setup building as seller bias hits 63%
DAA spikes to six-month high, signaling renewed on-chain strength
Weekly model red close could mark a contrarian low
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