Bitcoin Stalls Beneath the Weekly Cloud as Markets Brace for the Fed
BTC tests 93K into key resistance while macro signals, dollar hesitation and leverage buildup hint at a volatile path ahead.
đŞ Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin is once again pressing toward the 93,000 USD region, though early-week momentum is clearly slowing at major resistance. The ADP private payrolls report printed a negative headline, reinforcing confidence that the Fed is set to cut rates next week.
The U.S. Dollar Index broke its recent range but failed to produce decisive follow-through. Markets are now waiting to see whether capital rotates out of the dollar ahead of the Fed and the CPI release â or whether itâs too early to abandon defensive positioning.
Gold and silver had clean breakout opportunities yesterday but didnât follow through, suggesting the dollar may not be ready to roll over aggressively just yet.
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đď¸ SingalBoat Calendar
âď¸ Technical Picture
Bitcoin is engaging directly with the top of the weekly Ichimoku cloud, which currently sits near 95,255 USD. Last week, an identical test triggered a swift 10,000 USD rejection.
A weekly close above the cloud would be a major development â the type that ends multi-month range behavior and encourages trend-following inflows. But until that happens, resistance remains formidable.
If bulls manage to pierce through, the next structural waypoint is the 98,000â100,000 USD zone on the five-day chart, where multiple high-timeframe levels converge.
Our model declined sharply again, bringing it close to exiting the deepest stress zone. Historically, thatâs where underlying conditions begin improving beneath the surface â usually ahead of cleaner long setups.
A key question remains: Does BTC get one more pullback after the Fed? The structure still supports this possibility.
đ Liquidation & Leverage Dynamics
Liquidation heatmaps point toward downside liquidity near 92,000 USD, making a sweep of that region a plausible move today. Open-interest distribution also shows significant positioning clustered around 92K, suggesting traders may attempt to regroup from that level.
On the flip side, highly leveraged accounts have targets mapped near 96,000 USD, meaning any sharp squeeze could momentarily extend higher. But the fact that leverage remains so stretched on the long side argues that the weekâs rally may fade once upper targets are cleared.
đ§ USD Dominance & Macro Flows
USD Dominance charts reveal an important nuance: BTCâs surface strength might be overstated.
A wedge breakout remains active, and dominance is drifting back toward its breakout pivot. This attempt may hold for now, even though broader divergence layers imply that USDT dominance should weaken severely later.
This introduces a risk: one more âmax painâ move lower for Bitcoin before the larger trend reasserts itself.
Meanwhile, a multi-week view in our momentum model suggests an upcoming buy-signal window â but itâs still a couple of weeks away. Historically, this pattern is associated with a final lower low before a more durable reversal.
đŹ Final Thoughts
The market is caught between powerful opposing forces:
⢠heavy resistance overhead,
⢠leverage-driven upside potential,
⢠and macro uncertainty just ahead of the Fed.
A dip toward 92K looks like a reasonable short-term reset. A deeper retest into the low-80Ks remains possible later, especially if USD strength briefly holds. Once the dust settles, the market will be far better positioned for cleaner long setups.
đŻ Strategy Outlook
Short-Term â Pending
Staying extremely patient until volatility resolves.
Medium-Term â Pending
Prefer deeper entries, ideally in the low-80K range or below.
Long-Term â Long
Long-term cycle structure remains intact toward 230K, conditional on BTC holding above 72K.
Entry: 79,000 USD
Stop: 65,000 USD
Target: 180,000 USD