Bitcoin Tests Key Supports as Risk-Off Deepens || Nov 21, 2025
Sentiment turns fragile as equities sell off and crypto follows.
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin slid again after major U.S. indices — especially the Nasdaq — extended their sell-off on Thursday. NVIDIA’s reversal and rising unemployment pushed equities sharply lower, dragging crypto with it. Toxic order flow and an extreme imbalance between short and long liquidations hint at exhaustion beneath the surface.
📅 Want the Full SignalBoat Playbook?
Our Free content is focused on our Sunday Summaries (Podcast, Video, & Blog Post).
Our Premium membership unlocks the entire daily strategy playbook:
All 6 Daily Newsletters (Mon-Sat): Your 5-minute playbook before the New York market opens.
The Special Sunday Analysis (SSA): Our flagship in-depth strategy report for the week ahead.
Exclusive Deep Dives & On-Demand Reviews.
Premium Signals and popular crypto analysis requests via Substack Chat
All of this — for just $0.19 a day.
That’s less than a coffee… for full crypto clarity, every single morning. ☕
⚙️ Technical Picture
Risk pressure from equities is spilling into crypto. The Nasdaq’s breakdown from a bearish structure suggests another leg lower is still likely. A continued equity washout increases the probability of Bitcoin retesting deeper supports.
Bitcoin is working its way down the weekly Ichimoku cloud. The midpoint of the cloud sits near 87,000 USD, a last-chance buffer before the broader structure threatens a slide toward 81,000 USD, the cloud base. Both trendlines of the Megaphone structure have now been breached, placing BTC well inside the danger zone unless it can reclaim higher levels quickly.
📊 On-Chain & Market Flow
Our model indicates that conditions remain stretched as bearish momentum persists. Historically, readings near current extremes often precede sharp reversals, but timing can be punishing. Past cycles suggest reversals typically occur within two weeks of such extreme conditions, but downside overshoots are common.
Another key observation: before reversals, Bitcoin often prints a final lower low, helping form bullish divergence and clearing residual leverage.
USDT dominance is flashing a major warning. A wedge breakout points to stress across crypto, yet the chart is filled with bearish divergence — a sign it may reverse hard when momentum runs out. If Bitcoin can stabilize above 87,000–88,000 USD, odds of a powerful rebound rise meaningfully.
💬 Final Thoughts
Bitcoin is in a tight spot. A failure to hold above near-term supports opens the door to a test of the weekly cloud base near 81,000 USD. But extreme model readings, heavy short-side liquidations, and stretched dominance metrics leave the door open for a sharp reversal if buyers can reclaim key levels.
The next sessions will be a battle between equity-driven risk-off flows and oversold crypto conditions. A recovery above 87,000 USD would be the first constructive sign.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term: Pending
Conditions remain unstable; no clear setup until key reclaim levels form.
Medium-Term: Long
This position is close to its stop. Holding depends entirely on 87,000 USD stabilizing soon.
Long-Term: Long
Stop adjusted to entry. A recovery phase is still possible, but price must avoid deeper structural breakdowns.