Bounce, Backfill, or Break? Bitcoin Tests 105K as CPI Looms || Nov 11, 2025

After peaking at 107.5K on shutdown progress, BTC slips to 105K support; a dip toward ~103K could reset longs before the next leg.

🪙 Crypto Market Overview

Bitcoin tagged 107,500 USD late Monday after the U.S. Senate mustered the votes to reopen the government, then cooled to the 105,000 USD support area — hinting at an early-week swing-high and a market that wants one more reset before trying higher. The narrative now pivots to Thursday’s CPI and a stack of Fed speakers that could sway rate expectations. A televised interview from a dovish Fed voice calling for a December cut added fuel to the “relief-then-reprice” vibe, while political chatter about the next Fed Chair adds a speculative tailwind.

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⚙️ Technical Picture

Price action favors a “backfill then rally” path. A swift shakeout into 103,000–102,600 USD would clear leveraged longs and offer patient buyers a cleaner entry, especially with an unfilled gap noted in related spot/ETF proxies. If dip demand shows up as expected, the upside map remains:

• Initial magnets: 110,000 USD, then 113,800 USD (mid-Bollinger / 50% retrace cluster from the most recent swing set).

• Key intraday gates: reclaim 104,600–107,000 USD with momentum for continuation; lose 103K decisively and the setup degrades.

Bigger picture, the highest yearly close ↔ yearly low Fibonacci sequence still frames this pullback as bull-market-consistent so long as 98,000 USD holds. A weekly close firmly below the 50-week MA would raise risk, but it hasn’t invalidated the cycle while 98K stands.

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📊 On-Chain & Market Flow

• Positioning: Funding is orderly and Open Interest has risen with price — constructive. Retail shorts are finally ticking up, which historically provides fuel if price pushes higher.

• Whales: Data show two-way flow — some legacy holders have sold into strength, yet large wallets added ~30,000 BTC this week, reflecting accumulation under the surface.

• Behavioral tells: A notable jump in Token Age Consumed often precedes directional, one-way phases; combined with persistent positive Daily Active Address divergence, our read is that conditions favor upside follow-through once liquidity anxiety fades.

Macro tie-in, brief: DXY has cooled from recent highs, AI/tech led a rebound in U.S. equities, and UST 10-year yields remain range-bound ahead of CPI. Europe’s sentiment data are soft; Asia trades headline-driven as the shutdown resolution progresses. Net effect for crypto: slightly friendlier risk backdrop, but headline sensitivity remains elevated.

Our momentum model suggests bearish pressure is easing, not gone — supportive of dip-buys into the 103K zone while CPI risk is priced.

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💬 Final Thoughts

The market just logged the textbook sequence for a relief rally: policy progress, cautious positioning, and responsive bids at obvious levels. A controlled sweep toward ~103K would improve the quality of the trend attempt and set up the 110K–113.8K test. Fail to attract buyers on that dip, and we’re back to debating the 98K line in the sand.

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🎯 Strategy Outlook

Short-Term: Neutral / Volatile
Medium-Term: Bullish above 116,800 USD
Long-Term: Cycle target ~230,000 USD unless 72,000 USD fails

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