BTC Faces Pivotal Week With Monthly & Quarterly Closes Ahead || Daily News
Key support zones and economic data will define whether Bitcoin bounces or breaks lower
🪙 Crypto Market
Bitcoin enters a critical stretch with the monthly and quarterly closes just days away, alongside upcoming U.S. economic data that could shape the Fed’s next policy move.
Quarterly close to watch: $107,180 — a finish below here would mark a negative quarterly print.
Monthly close to watch: $108,247 — slipping below would confirm a weak monthly close.
Staying above these levels is crucial for bulls to prevent a deeper sentiment shift into bearish territory.
📊 Order Book Support
Despite sluggish weekend price action, spot order books continue to show strong bid support.
Bids have been building since September 25th, each time followed by a bounce.
The rebound target area suggested by current flows sits around $118k–$119k.
This ongoing demand underpins the case for another recovery attempt in the coming sessions.
📅 Macro Data Watch
Markets are also gearing up for fresh U.S. economic data:
Non-farm payrolls (next week): Some analysts warn of a near-zero or even negative print, linked to lower immigration and deportation trends. A weak number could fuel expectations for another Fed rate cut.
ISM Manufacturing: Still struggling to reclaim the key 50 level — a shift above would signal expansion and could sway risk assets.
Both releases may provide the macro push crypto needs to break its range.
⚠️ Risk Signals
Key support at $107.2k: A break below risks accelerating losses toward the $98k zone.
USDT Dominance: Now on track to close above its 50-week MA — historically a bearish signal for crypto flows.
Sentiment gauges show we’re either at the tail end of capitulation or on the verge of a deeper correction.
That said, Top Trader positioning remains tilted toward recovery, suggesting not everyone is convinced by the bearish tilt.
🔎 Technical Picture
Double-bottom potential: If BTC holds the $107.2k floor, a rebound toward $114.6k is possible.
Bear risk: Lose that floor, and downside opens quickly.
Near term, holding above $110k would provide a much-needed signal of strength before the month-end closes.
📌 Key Takeaways
BTC is approaching make-or-break monthly/quarterly closes.
$107.2k–$108.2k = must-hold range.
Strong spot bid support hints at a possible $118k bounce target.
Macro catalysts: Non-farm payrolls & ISM data may set the tone for October.
Downside risk remains if USDT dominance breaks higher and BTC loses its floor.
🎯 Strategy Snapshot (levels only, not advice)
Short-term bias: Long from $115k, stop $107k, target $140k.
Medium-term bias: Trend intact unless $98k breaks.
Long-term bias: Cycle projection still points to $230k, invalidation only below $72k.