BTC Pins 112k–115k Range Into Record Options Friday — ETH/SOL Need Stabilization || Daily News
A muddy tape until PCE + $22.6B expiries; negative funding and on-chain divergences argue for a relief bounce
🪙 Crypto Market
Bitcoin faded from $114k as traders square up for Friday’s PCE and the largest BTC & ETH options expiries on record (~$22.6B). With max-pain clustered near ~$110k, price action may stay choppy until these catalysts clear. Yesterday’s pop likely owed to dip demand + ETF inflows and the unwind of bullish divergences into the $114k area.
Macro tilt still matters: Fed speakers kept a cautious tone, the dollar firmed and yields ticked higher—a mix that usually caps crypto bounces. If today’s US growth & jobless claims cool yields or the dollar, crypto could catch a bid.
📊 Bitcoin — Levels & Structure
Bull control above: $112,000 today; $114,600 (daily close) would mark a momentum shift.
Objective: $115,000 first, then $117k–$118k if strength persists.
Risk ladder: Lose $112k → watch $111.7k–$109.4k (bull-market support band, 20w SMA / 21w EMA zone).
Deeper risk: 200-DMA ~ $104k if buyers fail to defend the band.
On-chain confluence: BTC tagged the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (~$111.4k) and bounced; staying above it keeps the bull trend template intact. (Santiment / Glassnode-style metrics)
🟣 ETH & 🔵 SOL
ETH: $4,000 is line-in-the-sand. Below opens $3,700 → $3,600; reclaiming $4,220 (monthly pivot/trendline) would argue the low is in.
SOL: Stabilization above $215 needed; a BTC slip under $112k risks a run toward ~$190.
Both show positive on-chain activity divergences—supportive, but confirmation needs multi-day closes back above those pivots.
📈 Positioning & Liquidity
Leverage skew: Futures markets are heavily short on both BTC & ETH; historically, that’s squeeze fuel once spot stabilizes.
Where shorts loaded: ~$116k BTC and $4,450 ETH—common “snap-back” magnets.
Spot/ETF flow: BTC outflows turned modest vs. Monday; ETH outflows widened—a tactical headwind until reversed.
Liquidation maps: Dense short-liq pockets around $114.9k, then $117.7k; near-term range most likely $112k–$115k.
Sentiment reset: Funding prints deeply negative; retail increasingly fading the bounce—a contrarian positive if price stops making new lows.
🗺️ Key Charts Driving the Setup
Bull-Market Support Band (weekly): $111.7k–$109.4k—the must-hold zone if $112k cracks.
STH Cost Basis (~$111.4k): Holding above keeps the uptrend template alive.
Total ex-BTC: Briefly slipped below neckline; a quick reclaim would re-ignite breadth.
DXY & Yields: Firmer dollar / higher yields = headwind; any cool-off post-data would help crypto risk.
⚠️ Risks & Shakeouts
Break of $112k turns focus to $111.7k–$109.4k, then $104k (200-DMA) if sellers press.
ETH failing $4,000 likely drags majors; $3,600 becomes the pain point.
Persistent ETF outflows in ETH would delay recovery even if BTC stabilizes.
📌 Key Takeaways
BTC: Needs daily close > $114.6k to firm up; $112k remains the day’s line-in-the-sand.
ETH/SOL: Confirmation = ETH > $4,220, SOL > $215; otherwise beta stays fragile.
Flows & positioning: Short crowding + negative funding favor a squeeze if lows stop extending.
Catalysts: PCE + record expiries Friday likely decide the next multi-day leg.
🎯 Strategy Snapshot (levels only, not advice)
Short-term bias: Constructive while ≥ $112k; aim $115k → $117k–$118k on acceptance.
Fail-then-go plan: Sweep $111.7k–$109.4k (weekly band) → swift reclaim sets up squeeze to $115k+.
Validation: Weekly close back above $115k improves odds of a $120k attempt next week.
Stops / guards: Respect $112k intraday; structural guardrails $109k → $104k.