BTC Slips to $109k on Record Options Expiry — Eyes on Post-Futures Rebound || Daily News
Fear gauges flash extreme lows; liquidation map favors sharp bounce if 107k holds
🪙 Crypto Market
Bitcoin sank to the $109k zone on Friday as the largest-ever weekly and quarterly options expiry (~$18B notional) collided with quarter-end flows. The max-pain level at $110k acted like a magnet, keeping BTC pinned into expiry.
Ethereum options also leaned heavy with a max-pain near $3,700, suggesting further ETH downside risk before settlement.
As always with mega-expiry days, the key question is what comes after. Once dealer hedging flows fade, history suggests volatility often resolves with a directional move higher if structural demand remains intact.
📊 Bitcoin — Levels & Structure
Immediate range: $109,100–$111,300 (weekly support band + short-term holder cost basis).
Upside markers: $111.3k (daily close needed), then $113.5k–$116k (stacked short-liq zones).
Deeper risk: Break below $107.3k opens room toward $105k (long-liq cluster).
Macro invalidation: Only sub-$98k weekly closes would derail the broader bull-cycle roadmap.
✅ Positive Signs
Fear & Greed Index dropped to its lowest since April (when BTC was near $80k) → often contrarian bullish.
Spot order books show bid-side loading on Binance, typical pre-bounce behavior.
On-chain activity (active addresses) continues to print bullish divergences, hinting at underlying strength.
Liquidation asymmetry: Few long stops until $105k, but heavy short stacks above $113.5k–$116k → squeeze fuel once a rebound kicks in.
🟣 ETH & 🔵 SOL Watch
ETH: Risk remains for a dip to $3,700–$3,600, but reclaiming $4,220 would argue the low is in. Stop levels under $3,194 (yearly pivot) widely referenced.
SOL: Forming a bullish activity divergence. While $190–186 is still a potential shakeout zone, a medium-term bounce toward $240 looks achievable once broader flows stabilize.
🗺️ Big Picture Roadmap
Charts still point to a three-leg structure ahead:
Breakout above $132k → trigger wave toward $170k.
Pullback consolidation.
Final drive into $220k+ to complete the cycle.
As long as $98k holds, the cycle thesis remains intact.
📌 Key Takeaways
BTC $109k: Options expiry gravity; focus now shifts to post-expiry unwind.
Sentiment reset: Fear index and negative funding add contrarian bullish tilt.
ETH/SOL: Risk of near-term flushes remains, but divergences suggest rebound scope.
Targets: $111.3k reclaim opens path toward $113.5k–$116k short squeeze.
🎯 Strategy Snapshot (levels only, not advice)
Short-term bias: Long from $115k, stop $107k, target $140k.
Medium-term bias: Above $117k weekly close = space toward $150k.
Long-term bias: Cycle roadmap intact toward $230k; invalidation under $98k.