Daily News: Crypto Wobbles Into ADP Day: Range Holds, Nerves High
“Rally → pullback → rally” remains the week’s rhythm; jobs data and revisions are the swing factors.
🪙 Crypto Market
Bitcoin and majors are retracing this morning, but that’s consistent with this week’s rally–pullback–rally pattern. The tape still feels like it wants higher, yet the 1–2% daily moves tell you participants are cautious into labor data.
Today’s catalyst: ADP employment. A weak print likely lifts rate-cut odds; a strong one does the opposite. Also put September 9 on the calendar—big BLS revisions could matter even more than Friday’s NFP.
BTC: What the chart needs
Reclaiming $112,000 was welcome, but so far it’s only a retest of a lost range. To reassert control, bulls need acceptance back inside $112k and then a push through last week’s ~$113.5k high.
If the retest fails, expect more back-and-fill until the data clears the air. The path to ATH still exists—but likely not in a straight line.
Signals & Positioning
Short-term models leaned sell into today’s ADP, so a further dip beforehand is possible.
Our broader momentum gauge finally ticked lower (modestly) after weeks of rising—a tiny step, but if it continues for several days while price holds > $112k, it would strengthen the bottoming case.
Retail flow has been net-selling since Monday’s bounce. Ironically, that helps repair the backdrop—persistent retail selling into higher lows is fuel for recoveries.
Total Market Cap & Alts
Total crypto mkt cap broke out of a wedge yesterday and is retesting. Holding >$3.94T keeps the breakout viable; lose it and bearish chatter returns.
ETH: big liquidation pocket near $4,300; watch reaction if tagged. Key pivot zone sits ~$4,500 (monthly pivot + major resistance). Trend looks fine so long as $4,200 holds.
🌍 Global Macro & Markets
Investors increasingly price a September Fed cut after softer job openings and dovish Fed commentary.
Fed’s Beige Book flagged weak consumer spend, wages lagging prices in places, and tariffs lifting input costs.
Cross-asset: long-dated yields cooled after a sharp run-up; gold eased off highs; Brent slipped on supply worries; EUR/USD stays range-bound.
Today: ADP, jobless claims, ISM services; JGB 30-yr auction will test appetite at the very long end.
📌 Key Takeaways
Pattern intact: rally → pullback → rally; intraday swings are still small for a true bull-range day.
For BTC, acceptance back inside $112k and a break of $113.5k would reassert control.
Short-term models leaned sell into ADP; a couple more soft prints in momentum while price holds would improve the bull case.
Total mkt cap must hold > $3.94T to keep the breakout narrative alive.
ETH: watch $4,300 (liqs) and $4,500 (pivot/resistance); trend okay above $4,200.
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