🪙 Crypto Market
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market ended Friday lower after sentiment flipped on recession fears, sparking a pullback in equities and digital assets. BTC briefly recovered with stocks but still faced firm rejection at $111,700.
The weekend becomes pivotal: Bitcoin needs to reclaim $112,600 to restore technical strength. Monday’s upcoming BLS jobs revisions could prove more influential than Friday’s payrolls, while CPI and tariff headlines add further uncertainty.
Market Structure: Two Paths Ahead
Bull script: Strong demand clusters appeared near recent lows (~$109k), similar to prior cycle inflection points. Holding $108–109k, flipping $112–113k into support, and clearing $114k could open a run to $117–120k, with $124–125k as the next shelf before any move toward $140k.
Bear risk: A sustained break below $108k risks $107.3k → $104k and would revive distribution-style patterns.
Short-term, BTC’s rebound attempts show higher highs and lower lows, with unusually strong bid support appearing in order books. On-chain metrics such as daily active addresses also flashed their best readings since April, hinting at healthy undercurrents despite turbulence.
🌐 Ethereum & Altcoins
ETH
Guardrail: Must hold $4,000; losing it increases the risk of a pullback toward $3,600.
Bull confirmation: Needs multi-day acceptance above $4,450–4,641 to unlock $5,000–5,200; longer-term math still points to ~$7,000 if momentum persists.
Caution: Usage metrics (addresses, txn volume) remain soft—suggesting any rally may need a shakeout first.
SOL
Currently hovering near its monthly pivot around $193–200. A retest lower wouldn’t invalidate the bullish case, but traders should brace for volatility.
Total Market Cap
The total crypto market cap staged a wedge breakout earlier this week; holding >$3.94T is critical. Failure here would raise the risk of a false break and deeper retracement before recovery.
📊 Macro & Market Backdrop
U.S. labor data: A weaker ADP report and higher jobless claims point to softness. Today’s Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate could swing sentiment sharply.
Jobs revisions (Sept 9): Could reframe the macro view if adjustments are large.
ISM Services: Showed strength, lifting U.S. equities midweek.
Global assets: Long yields in the U.S., UK, France, and Japan recently hit decade highs, stirring debt market concerns. Gold and silver pulled back slightly after setting record highs, while oil slipped on supply worries.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch
BTC support: $108.8k–108k; break risks $107.3k, then $104k.
BTC resistance: $112k–112.7k validation band; $114k breakout trigger.
BTC upside markers: $117–120k near term; $124–125k shelf; ~$140k if cycle momentum extends.
ETH: Hold $4k; reclaim $4,450–4,641 for 5k+.
📌 Takeaways
BTC sits at a binary zone: defend ~$108k or reclaim $112–114k for a push toward 120k+.
On-chain and order book flows show real demand even during pullbacks.
ETH remains constructive above $4k, but needs to flip 4,450–4,641 to confirm higher targets.
Jobs data and revisions will heavily influence risk sentiment across all assets.
Alts may drift lower near term but could present opportunities if BTC stabilizes.
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