🪙 Crypto Market
Bitcoin is stuck between $110k–111k, supported by Fed rate cut expectations and institutional inflows. The price action remains muted, with the market likely waiting for:
Tuesday: BLS annual jobs revisions.
Wednesday: PPI inflation.
Thursday: CPI inflation.
BTC’s weekly pivot point sits at $110,590, a level that will be closely tested. Meanwhile, leverage traders remain heavily Short, creating conditions for a potential squeeze toward 112k.
Short GAMMA positioning suggests heightened volatility ahead — expect sharper swings as dealers hedge positions.
📊 Technical & On-Chain Signals
Key levels:
Support: 107k major low (must hold).
Resistance: 112.6k (multi-day closes above needed to confirm bullish control).
Range play: 110k–115k unless data shocks.
On-chain positioning:
% of supply in profit reset from near 100% to ~90%. Historically, sustained rallies tend to form when this metric dips further, toward 80–70%.
Stablecoin supply on ETH hit an all-time high. Historically, BTC tracks this metric closely (~95% correlation). The current divergence suggests BTC “should” be higher, potentially making new ATHs soon.
Liquidity cycle: Historically, metals and Chinese equities pump before crypto in late-cycle liquidity phases. Both rallied last week — hinting Bitcoin’s turn may be near.
🌍 Macro Backdrop
Fed rate cuts remain in focus, with markets expecting easing soon.
Global liquidity trends (M2) suggest Bitcoin could target 200k within 12 weeks, if current cycles repeat.
A big clue: BTC holding near 140k in October would reinforce this scenario.
📌 Key Takeaways
BTC still locked in 110k–111k → awaiting data catalysts.
Upside path: reclaim 112.6k → 115k; break higher → 120k.
Downside risk: retest of 107k; failure there → 104k.
On-chain divergences (stablecoins, supply in profit) lean bullish mid-term.
Macro liquidity cycle supports a potential run toward 200k into year-end / early 2026.
📢 Final Note
Short-term volatility may be elevated, but the medium-to-long-term picture remains constructive. Key tests arrive this week with jobs revisions, PPI, and CPI — likely to set the tone for September’s trend.
