Daily News || Bitcoin Drops Despite Stock Market Highs — Recovery Hinges on Key Levels
Options games pressure BTC, but Wyckoff structure and altcoin strength keep bulls hopeful
🪙 Market Overview
Bitcoin slipped lower yesterday even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted fresh all-time highs and optimism came from Trump–Xi trade talks. The likely culprit wasn’t macro headlines but options market dynamics. With the max pain point near $115k, market makers appear to be targeting long liquidations before allowing any trending move higher.
Exchanges benefit when highly leveraged traders get flushed out — so the recent drop could be more about positioning than fundamentals.
📉 Technical Damage
Limited so far: BTC’s structure remains intact unless $114.4k (the critical swing low) breaks.
Bulls’ task: Regain $116.8k this weekend to reverse the bearish momentum shift.
Worst-case near term: A sweep toward $113k, which could serve as a final liquidity grab before a major bounce.
Channel view: Support held at $115.1k, with rebound targets at $117k and $122k.
🔎 Bullish Clues
MACD divergence: Lower timeframes show bullish divergence up to $117.8k.
On-chain activity: Active addresses also signaling positive divergence.
Top traders: Bought the dip around $116k and positioned for $118k+ (contrasting with retail selling).
Liquidity backdrop: Fed’s Treasury General Account refill nearly done — liquidity risks easing, a potential tailwind for BTC.
🔗 Nasdaq Correlation
Stocks rallied: Nasdaq broke out of a megaphone pattern, while BTC sold off — an unusual divergence.
Two paths:
BTC catches up with Nasdaq this weekend (preferred scenario).
Nasdaq’s move was a fake breakout, which could unwind Monday and drag crypto lower.
🌐 Market Structure
Altcoins resilient: Many alts held support despite BTC’s slump.
CTMC ex-BTC breakout: Still intact, signaling broad-based strength if BTC stabilizes.
USDT dominance: Hovering at breakdown zone, keeping conditions bullish.
Total crypto market cap: Sitting near record weekly close, adding urgency for BTC to recover.
Wyckoff pattern: Still valid above $114.4k, with potential to transition into the markup phase on a daily close above $118k.
🎯 Strategy Snapshot (levels only, not advice)
Short-term: Long from $115k, stop $110k, target $140k. Recovery requires reclaiming $116.8k.
Medium-term: A close above $118k strengthens the path toward $140k–$160k.
Long-term: Cycle potential $230k, with $72k as the structural downside guardrail.
⚡ Key Takeaways
Options expiry “games” likely drove BTC lower despite bullish macro sentiment.
As long as $114.4k holds, the Wyckoff structure remains intact.
Reclaiming $116.8k–$118k this weekend is crucial to reassert bullish control.
Altcoin charts and market cap structure suggest the broader crypto uptrend is alive.