Bitcoin Eyes Key Monthly Close as Options Expiry Looms || Daily News
BTC struggles at $116k while ETH shows weakness; quarter-end volatility ahead
🪙 Market Overview
Bitcoin is stalling below $116k into the weekly close, but Sunday trading often picks up during the U.S. session. Next week could be unusually volatile, with:
Friday’s PCE inflation data in the U.S.
Record BTC & ETH options expirations (largest in history).
Quarter- and month-end closes—BTC must finish above $107k for a positive quarter and $115.8k for its highest ever monthly close.
Market makers and options dealers will likely dictate positioning into these events.
🔗 Macro Link
U.S. equities remain the driver to watch. The Nasdaq’s megaphone breakout has supported crypto recently, but if last week’s post–Quad Witching gains unwind, Bitcoin could suffer a sympathy pullback.
📊 Bitcoin Technicals
Bullish threshold: A weekly close above $116.8k would tilt momentum higher into next week.
Very bullish: A close above $118k—currently unlikely—would be a breakout signal.
Bearish risk: A weekly close below $114.6k opens the door to a test of the $113k–112k liquidation zone early next week.
Channel support: Still intact, with rebound targets at $117k–122k if defended.
🧩 ETH Concerns
Top traders are positioned for a short-term bearish leg in ETH.
Supply in profit is at elevated levels, a potential sell signal.
ETH repeatedly failing to hold above $4,650 is a red flag.
While sentiment can shift quickly, traders should keep an eye on a possible short-term correction in ETH.
âš¡ Altcoins
BNB continues to stand out, while Litecoin (LTC) is showing unusual strength:
Short-heavy positioning on heatmaps, often a contrarian bullish sign.
Top trader data points to $126 as a target.
On-chain daily active addresses are rising, hinting at renewed activity.
📈 Indicator Watch
Atlas: Rising modestly (+3 points over 2 days). Needs monitoring—if it climbs further, upside momentum could weaken.
Vanguard: Set to close the week orange unless BTC quickly pushes above $118k.
Candle pattern: Similar weekly setup in the past has preceded a big up week—possible bullish omen if support holds.
🎯 Strategy Snapshot (levels only, not advice)
Short-term: Long from $115k, stop $110k, target $140k.
Medium-term: $120k remains the critical breakout zone.
Long-term: Cycle potential $230k; structural guardrail remains $72k.
âš¡ Key Takeaways
This week is packed: PCE data, record options expiry, and quarter-end closes.
BTC must hold $114.6k to avoid deeper liquidation sweeps.
ETH looks fragile under $4,650, while LTC is quietly flashing bullish signals.
Indicators suggest upside still possible, but caution is warranted heading into Friday’s events.