Daily News: Bitcoin Lifts After ADP Miss — Eyes on Payrolls & Revisions
BTC rebounds from ~$109k; “bad data = easier Fed” playbook in focus, with wildcards on unemployment and next week’s revisions.
🪙 Crypto Market
Bitcoin pushed higher after an extended dip toward $109,000 following a weaker-than-expected ADP print. The drop looked largely technical (range retest and stop-hunts), while parts of ISM Services were firm enough to help stocks finish green.
Jobs-day playbook
Soft payrolls → higher stocks/crypto as larger rate-cut odds get priced.
Wildcards:
A negative headline NFP can cause a fast two-way move (down, then up).
A jump in the unemployment rate could spark 50bp cut chatter.
Sept 9 BLS revisions may reshape the whole narrative (some talk of very large downward adjustments).
Structure & levels
Price action fits a re-accumulation/Wyckoff template after a textbook retest and lift. If that holds:
Near-term targets: $115k–$117k (today if momentum follows through).
Invalidation: sustained break < $108k opens $104k risk.
Market internals & positioning
Trend/momentum gauges were flat into yesterday’s decline—encouraging (no fresh deterioration), but not a full turn yet.
“Top trader” cohorts added BTC on weakness, implying confidence in higher levels ahead.
Short-term models for alts lean to fresh buy setups, but some may need a quick marginal lower low intraday to “perfect” signals before turning up.
Alt watch
ETH: large liquidation pocket near $4,300; big confluence/ceiling around $4,500 (monthly pivot + pattern resistance). Trend fine above $4,200.
SOL: constructive overall; a sweep toward the $193 monthly pivot can’t be ruled out before a turn.
🌍 Global Macro & Markets
U.S. claims: initial jobless claims rose to 237k, highest in ~2 months.
ISM Services: improved to 52.0, the strongest expansion in six months.
Markets lean to a September cut and keep odds of another cut by year-end, with revisions and today’s NFP set to refine expectations.
Cross-asset snapshot:
U.S. 10Y: eased to ~4.15% after recent yield spikes across majors.
Gold/Silver: minor pullback after setting fresh highs earlier in the week; uptrends intact.
Oil: Brent slipped on supply worries and inventory chatter.
FX: EUR/USD steady around 1.1650; broader G10 mixed ahead of data.
📌 Key Takeaways
BTC’s rebound from $109k looks structural, not just headline-driven.
$115k–$117k is the upside magnet if jobs data cooperates; < $108k risks $104k.
Watch unemployment rate and Sept 9 revisions as pivotal wildcards.
ETH needs to clear $4,500; trend ok above $4,200.
Macro still favors easing: softer labor signals, firmer services, and cooling yields.