BTC Battles $116k as Quarter-End & Record Options Expiry Near || Daily News

A choppy week ahead: PCE on Friday, the biggest BTC/ETH expiries ever, and key monthly/quarterly closes

🪙 Crypto Market

Bitcoin started the week on the back foot, slipping while U.S. equities notched fresh highs. The more likely driver wasn’t macro headlines but options positioning: with max-pain skewed toward ~$115k and dealers hunting leverage before Friday’s record expiries, spot was vulnerable to shakeouts.

This Friday brings a double catalyst: the U.S. PCE inflation print and the largest BTC & ETH options expiries on record. Layer on month- and quarter-end flows and it’s a recipe for unusual tape action. For reference:

• Quarterly close: BTC > $107k = positive quarter.

• Monthly close: BTC > $115.8k = highest monthly close ever.

Until then, equities remain the swing factor. The Nasdaq’s megaphone breakout is supportive, but if recent gains unwind, crypto could catch a sympathy downdraft.

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🔎 Bitcoin — Levels, Structure, Setup

Where we are: BTC is struggling to clear $116k into the weekly close. A firm weekly close > $116.8k tilts momentum bullish into next week; >$118k would be a statement. < $114.6k risks a run at the $113k–$112k liquidation pocket.

Key technicals (near-term):

• Support ladder: $115.1k (channel support) → $114.6k (swing low) → $114.3k (near 50-DMA) → $113k (liquidations).

• Upside triggers: $116.8k reclaim → $118k daily close → $120k magnet.

• Pattern context: BTC still tracks a Wyckoff-style re-accumulation. Separately, a cup-and-handle build around $114k–$115k implies measured targets near $128.7k–$132.7k if confirmed.

• Momentum tells: Lower-timeframe bullish MACD & address-activity divergences point toward $117.8k as a realistic rebound target.

Flows & positioning:

• Just before the Fed cut, ~29,700 BTC (~$3.4B) moved into accumulation addresses—second-largest daily tally of 2025—consistent with medium-term dip buying.

• Sentiment/Funding: BTC funding flipped to the most negative since May, and broad sentiment is at year-low territory—classic squeeze fuel if price stabilizes.

• Order flow: Bears added leverage into the dip while top traders bought near ~$116k and look for $118k+. If $116.8k–$118k is reclaimed, shorts are exposed.

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🌐 ETH & Alts — Mixed Signals

• ETH: Repeated failures at $4,650 and a high supply-in-profit share make it vulnerable to a short-term down-leg unless it decisively reclaims that band. A weekly close back above $4,650 would blunt the risk; otherwise expect choppier beta vs BTC.

• Market breadth: The Total ex-BTC breakout was interrupted and slipped below its neckline; bulls need a quick reclaim to avoid a 5–10% air-pocket across majors.

• Standouts: BNB shows relative strength. LTC has a short-heavy heatmap, top-trader positioning that eyes ~$126, and a pop in active addresses—a setup for squeezes rather than a long-term thesis.

• Stablecoin dominance: Still hovering at a potential breakdown zone—a decisive leg lower there would typically energize a broad crypto melt-up.

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🧭 This Week’s Playbook

• Bullish path: Hold $115k–$114.6k, reclaim $116.8k, then press $118k → $120k; watch for confirmation from U.S. session spot demand.

• Fail-then-go: Lose $114.6k → sweep $113k–$112k liquidity → quick reclaim of $115k sets up the next leg.

• Validation: Monthly close > $115.8k would be a headline-level confirmation of trend strength into October.

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📌 Key Takeaways

• Options & quarter-end flows likely dominate price action into Friday’s PCE + record expiries.

• $116.8k–$118k is the decision zone; >$118k opens a clean path toward $120k and keeps cup-and-handle targets in play.

• Funding deeply negative + bearish retail positioning vs pro dip-buying = asymmetric squeeze risk.

• ETH needs >$4,650 to repair tone; LTC looks primed for short squeezes; BNB retains leadership.

• The broader uptrend remains intact while $114.6k holds; below it, expect a quick visit to $113k–$112k before any attempt higher.

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🎯 Strategy Snapshot (levels only, not advice)

• Short-term bias: Constructive above $114.6k; add conviction on closes > $116.8k / $118k.

• Magnet/resistance: $120k into month-end; $128.7k–$132.7k if cup-and-handle triggers.

• Risk line: $114.6k (structure), then $113k–$112k (liquidity).