Daily News || BTC Eyes $118–120k as CPI Cooldown Aids Risk; Stablecoin Dominance Slips
Bitcoin defends the $114.6k breakout while macro data softens—altcoins start to stretch their legs
🪙 Crypto Market
Bitcoin extended higher toward $116,000 after reclaiming the key daily close near $112.6k and breaking through $114.6k resistance. In the very short term, the battleground is clear:
Support: $114.6k first, then $114.0k–$113.3k; a deeper line in the sand sits near $112.6k.
Upside magnets: $118k–$119k, with an extension toward $120.6k if momentum accelerates.
What’s driving the move
Stablecoin dominance is breaking lower. Historically that aligns with stronger crypto bids as capital rotates from cash/stablecoins into coins. The latest breakdown has completed an initial target with room to extend—supportive for BTC and alts.
Total crypto market cap is pressing out of a multi-week compression (a “falling wedge”-type structure), consistent with a broad-based advance rather than a BTC-only move.
Positioning/funding skews show aggressive buyers stepping in while shorter-term participants keep fading rallies. That backdrop often precedes a consolidation and then a range expansion higher once overhead liquidity is cleared.
Pattern context: The tape still resembles a late-stage re-accumulation: quick drives to new highs, shallower pullbacks, and rotations into stronger alt sectors.
Risk points to watch
A clean rejection near $116k without immediate dip-buying could bring a reload into $114k–$113.3k, and in a heavier flush, $112.6k.
If BTC powers through $118k–$119k, any subsequent pullback may be briefer and shallower before attempting higher targets.
Altcoins
Breadth is improving. Breakouts are starting to stick, and leaders are getting follow-through. For short-term traders, the playbook favors strength-on-dips in names already above recent bases—while keeping risk tight given headline-driven volatility.
🌍 Macro in One Minute
U.S. data: Headline CPI came in firmer m/m while weekly jobless claims rose to multi-month highs—mixed but leaning dovish for policy expectations. That combination tempered yields and kept rate-cut bets alive into autumn.
ECB: Left rates unchanged; guidance leaned cautious, signaling the disinflation tailwind has cooled.
FX & rates: Softer DXY, EUR/USD grinding higher, USD/JPY easing; U.S. 10Y ~4.0% with the curve flattening after the latest prints.
Commodities & equities: Oil eased on supply updates from IEA/OPEC; precious metals stayed supported on lower-yield dynamics. U.S. equities firmed, with AI-software names buoyed by upbeat results—risk appetite net supportive for crypto.
Bottom line for BTC: A cooler policy path + steady risk appetite helps the $118k–$120k test; a surprise hawkish shift or risk-off wobble would likely send BTC to $114k–$113.3k to refuel.
📌 Key Takeaways
BTC holds the $114.6k breakout; next resistance band sits at $118k–$120.6k.
Stablecoin dominance breaking down = capital rotation into crypto, a tailwind for both BTC and alts.
Total market cap is exiting compression, pointing to a broader move—not just a BTC grind.
If $116k rejects cleanly, $114k–$113.3k (then $112.6k) are the buy-the-dip zones to watch.
Macro remains modestly supportive: softer labor signals + contained core inflation keep rate-cut hopes alive.
🎯 Strategy Snapshot (levels only, not advice)
Short-term bias: Constructive above $114.6k; breakout confirmation on firm closes through $118k–$119k.
Pullback plan: First interest zone $114k–$113.3k; deeper reset $112.6k if headlines bite.
Momentum trigger: Acceptance above $120k opens a cleaner path toward higher cycle targets after a brief cool-off.
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