Daily News: BTC Holds ~$111k As Volatility Returns
Solid dip-buys meet rising global yields; path to $114k is open—but bonds and data could still spoil the party.
🪙 Crypto Market
Bitcoin hovered near $111,000 after a lively Tuesday session that brought back two-way volatility and real buy interest. A quick rebound from intraday lows and an immediate higher high set a constructive tone on lower timeframes. Spot order books show a persistent bid skew—the strongest since early summer—while futures positioning leaned short into the bounce, keeping squeeze risk alive.
That said, altcoins lagged. Many large caps still look fragile if BTC retests support first. On total market cap, the tape points to two paths:
a final dip to retest a broad expanding-wedge base before a stronger push higher, or
a direct drive toward $4T that would confirm a durable bottom is in.
Levels & Scenarios
Above $111k today → $114k test likely; liquidation maps align with that magnet later this week.
Failure at $111k raises odds of a pullback to the early-week breakout area for a full retest before any move higher.
If $114k breaks and holds, $118–119k comes into focus; rejection there keeps chop alive.
ETH & SOL Watch
ETH is butting up against $4,450 resistance—no breakdown, but no clean breakout yet. Notably, high-conviction accounts have started accumulating again; a “quiet climb” is possible if BTC cooperates.
SOL screens constructively on pattern work, but a broad risk wobble could still force a final stop sweep first.
Momentum Read
Short-term trend gauges were flat into the close—neutral enough to allow upside continuation if spot demand persists, but not yet a green light for “trend that sticks.” A decisive shift lower in those gauges would strengthen the bottoming case.
🌍 Global Macro & Markets
The global volatility gauge jumped toward 20 as long-dated yields surged across majors: the UK, France—and this morning Japan—hit decade highs in borrowing costs. For now, crypto has avoided a full risk-off spillover, but the rate backdrop remains the swing factor.
U.S. ISM Manufacturing came in sub-50, underscoring sluggish industrial momentum.
Eurozone CPI edged higher y/y, reinforcing the view that the ECB may stay on hold near term.
In FX, the dollar firmed, pressuring EUR/USD back toward the lower end of its recent range.
Gold notched fresh highs as duration anxiety simmered; equities were mixed to lower with Europe underperforming.
Bottom line: elevated yields + headline risk can still cap rallies—keep an eye on bonds and the incoming U.S. data run.
📌 Key Takeaways
BTC defended $111k; $114k remains the near-term pivot.
Spot bid imbalance and short positioning keep squeeze potential alive.
Alts lag; ETH needs a clean break above $4,450 to help breadth.
Rates spike keeps macro risk in play; gold firm, dollar steadier.
A weekly close above $118–119k would materially upgrade the bull case.
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