Daily News || BTC Holds $115k Ahead of FOMC — Eyes on $116.9k Profit Flip and $118–120k Breakout
Bitcoin steady near $116k as altcoins base; ETF demand and stablecoin-dominance slide keep the bullish door open
🪙 Crypto Market
Bitcoin spent the weekend defending the $115,000 support zone while altcoins consolidated near recent highs. That resilience keeps the path open into Wednesday’s Fed meeting, where a still-dovish policy path would support risk assets.
A key near-term trigger sits around $116,900. On-chain UTXO cohorts indicate that roughly ~500k BTC turn profitable near this level, which can accelerate flows if price accepts above it. In addition, the U.S. session ETF bid has been consistently supportive for both BTC and ETH—watch today’s primary market prints for confirmation.
Levels that matter (spot focus):
Support: $115,000 first; below that $113,600 is the next high-probability retest.
Resistance / magnets: $117.7k (local pivot/stop cluster), then $120,000. A clean acceptance above $120k strengthens the path toward new highs.
Pattern context: The tape continues to look like re-accumulation—brief, controlled dips followed by trend resumption. Wave structure also aligns with a fifth-leg push unfolding, but the prior $116.8k → $114.9k pullback may or may not have fully reset momentum. Translation: upside bias, but be ready for a final shallow shakeout if $116.9k rejects on first test.
Positioning & flows:
Momentum/market-structure gauges continue to ease lower even as price holds—typically a bullish configuration in uptrends (fuel for continuation).
Top-trader long/short mixes lean toward an attempt at $118k, while retail skew remains cautious/short—classic squeeze fuel.
Stablecoin dominance broke down again last week and, on higher time frames, sits close to triggering a larger bearish continuation (for dominance). Historically, that aligns with capital rotating into coins, a tailwind for BTC and alts.
Liquidity map: Order books showed buy walls reappearing on weekend dips; however, liquidation pockets remain thick near $113k on the downside. A failure at $118k could quickly run stops toward that zone before trend buyers re-engage.
🌐 ETH Watch
ETH continues to respect support along its megaphone/base retest, keeping the $6,000 objective alive. One caution: deeper liquidation pools around ~$4,500 leave room for a shakeout if BTC wobbles. As long as ETH holds above that lower band on a closing basis, the medium-term structure remains constructive.
🧭 What to Watch
$116.9k “profit-flip” trigger: Sustained trade above could invite momentum flows and push toward $117.7k → $120k.
ETF prints during U.S. hours: Continued net demand would reinforce the bid under BTC/ETH.
Stablecoin dominance new lows: More downside there = broader crypto participation.
FOMC setup (Wed): A cautious-dovish tone and unchanged easing path would keep the wind at crypto’s back.
🌍 Macro in Two Lines
Markets lean toward a 25bp Fed cut path into year-end; labor data soft spots and tame core trends keep yields capped, which generally supports risk.
Dollar mixed and equities firm, led by tech—conditions that typically don’t fight a crypto advance.
📌 Key Takeaways
BTC holding $115k keeps the $117.7k → $120k run in play; acceptance above $116.9k is the near-term spark.
On-chain supply pressure is lightening (profit-flip cohorts) while ETF demand remains a tailwind.
Stablecoin dominance downtrend signals ongoing rotation into crypto; breadth favors alts on dips.
Downside risk: a failed push at $118k could sweep $113.6k–$113k liquidity before trend resumes.
ETH structure intact; $6k remains achievable if BTC breaks higher and ETF flows stay supportive.
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