Daily News || BTC Pushes to New Monthly Highs Into FOMC — Eyes on $116.9k Profit-Flip and Weekly Close Above $120k
Bitcoin holds ~$115k support as altcoins base; lighter exchange balances and steady ETF demand keep upside momentum intact
🪙 Crypto Market
Bitcoin reclaimed the $115,000 zone and printed a fresh monthly high into the FOMC. The near-term roadmap is straightforward:
Support: $115,300 → $115,000, then $113,600; a deeper liquidity pocket sits near $113,000.
Upside triggers: $116.9k (large cohort profit-flip), $117.7k (local pivot/stop zone), then $120,000 (cycle gatekeeper). A weekly close above $120k would be a strong technical statement and set the stage for new ATHs.
Why $116.9k matters: On-chain cohort analysis suggests ~500k BTC tip back into profit around $116.9k. Sustained trade above that level often unlocks momentum strategies and improves liquidity on the offer.
Flows & supply:
U.S. session ETF demand for BTC/ETH remains a reliable bid on dips.
Exchange reserves for both BTC and ETH keep trending lower, tightening available spot supply.
Order books showed buy interest reappearing on weekend fades; still, if the first test of $118k fails, a quick sweep toward $113.6k–$113k isn’t off the table before buyers step back in.
Pattern context: Price action continues to resemble a re-accumulation phase: shallow pullbacks, swift reversals, and rotation into leaders. Wave structure still supports a fifth-leg push toward $120k+, though the $116.8k → $114.9k reset may or may not have fully refreshed momentum—watch $117.7k–$118k closely.
🌐 Macro
The market base case favors a 25 bp cut at today’s Fed decision (with a smaller camp debating 50 bp). Softer labor signals alongside solid retail demand keep yields capped and risk appetite supported—a backdrop that typically doesn’t fight a crypto advance. Recent dollar softness and firming equities help the crypto tape, so long as the Fed’s guidance leans cautiously dovish.
Liquidity sidenote: Recent money-market and Treasury cash-flow dynamics look less of a headwind than feared, removing one bearish narrative around systemic liquidity in the very near term.
🧭 What to Watch (next 24–72h)
Acceptance > $116.9k: Opens the lane to $117.7k → $120k; weekly close > $120k upgrades trend strength.
ETF prints during U.S. hours: Continued net demand would reinforce the floor under BTC/ETH.
Liquidation clusters: Dense pockets sit near $113k (BTC). A rejection at $118k could tag them before trend resumes.
Sentiment split: Retail chatter is leaning cautious while larger accounts add risk—classic squeeze fuel in uptrends.
🌐 ETH & Alts
ETH: Holding its base/“megaphone” retest; if BTC clears $118k–$120k, the path toward $6,000 stays alive. Note a $4.5k liquidation pool that could be tapped in a shakeout before higher.
SOL: Momentum can run quickly if BTC breaks out—spotting $300–310 as a stretch target, but that region also carries pullback risk. If the broader cycle extends (e.g., BTC → $160k in coming weeks), post-spike corrections on majors could present better entries later.
📌 Key Takeaways
BTC steady above $115k; eyes on $116.9k profit-flip and $117.7k pivot ahead of $120k.
Supply tightens (lower exchange balances) while ETF flows keep a bid in the market.
Macro backdrop—capped yields, softer dollar, risk-on tone—supports crypto as long as the Fed guides dovish.
Downside risk: First breakout attempt fails → quick sweep toward $113.6k–$113k before trend continuation.
ETH constructive toward $6k on BTC strength; alts look better on dips as breadth improves.
🎯 Strategy Snapshot
Continuation: Hold $115k, accept >$116.9k, target $117.7k → $120k.
Fail-then-go: Rejection at $118k → liquidity run $113.6k–$113k → rebuild higher.
Validation: Weekly close > $120k sets the tone for an ATH push.
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