Daily News || BTC Reclaims $115k Into FOMC — Eyes on $118k Test as Supply Tightens
Bitcoin steady near $116k, altcoins hold support; lighter exchange balances and persistent ETF demand keep the upside case alive
🪙 Crypto Market
Bitcoin is back above $115,000 after a calm weekend, while most altcoins are consolidating at or just below recent highs. The near-term path revolves around how price behaves above $115k today and tomorrow:
Hold $115k → bulls likely probe $117.7k and, if accepted, $120k.
Lose $115k → downside sweep toward $113.6k is possible before buyers re-engage.
Why $116.9k matters
On-chain cohort analysis suggests a large block of previously underwater coins flips back into profit around $116.9k. Acceptance above that band can unlock follow-through as sidelined supply loosens and momentum strategies re-activate.
Flows & positioning
ETF bid: U.S. session prints have repeatedly leaned supportive for both BTC and ETH—a key liquidity backstop on dips.
Exchange reserves: Spot balances for BTC/ETH continue to trend lower, reducing sell pressure.
Crowd vs. pros: Retail chatter has turned cautious/negative even as larger accounts lean long—historically a contrarian tailwind during uptrends.
Order books & liquidations: Fresh buy interest appeared on weekend dips. Still, a dense long-liquidation pocket near ~$113k remains a risk if $118k rejects on first attempt.
Structure & pattern
Price action continues to resemble a re-accumulation phase: short pullbacks, quick reversals, and rotation into leaders. Some wave counts point to a fifth-leg push toward $120k+, though last week’s $116.8k → $114.9k dip may or may not have fully reset momentum—keep an eye on how price reacts at $117.7k–$118k.
🌐 ETH Watch
ETH is holding the megaphone/base retest that kicked off its latest advance, keeping a move toward $6,000 in play if BTC breaks higher. One caveat: liquidation clusters linger around $4.5k; a brief liquidity hunt is possible before trend resumes—so long as higher-time-frame support holds.
🧭 What Actually Matters from Macro (only where it touches crypto)
Markets lean toward a 25 bp Fed cut on Wednesday, with a path to further easing into year-end. Softer labor signals and capped yields support risk assets.
Equities remain firm and the dollar is mixed—conditions that don’t fight a crypto advance, provided guidance stays cautious-dovish.
📌 Key Levels & Signals (not financial advice)
BTC supports: $115,000 → $113,600 → $113,000 (liquidation pocket).
BTC magnets/resistance: $116.9k (profit-flip), $117.7k, then $120,000.
Market breadth: Total crypto ex-BTC is pressing for a range breakout; stablecoin dominance continues to bleed lower, consistent with rotation into coins.
Spot activity: Recent surges in top-exchange spot volume share hint at stronger participation from larger traders/market makers—often a precursor to range expansion.
🧩 Game Plan (levels only, not advice)
Bullish continuation: Hold $115k, accept >$116.9k, then target $117.7k → $120k.
Fail-then-go: Rejection at $118k could flush $113.6k–$113k before a reload higher.
ETH: Constructive above the current base; $6k remains achievable if BTC clears $118k–$120k and ETF demand persists.
🔎 One-Look Summary
BTC defending $115k keeps the window open for an $118k–$120k attempt.
Supply is tight (lower exchange reserves) while institutional flows remain supportive.
Retail skepticism vs. pro accumulation is a classic late-cycle squeeze setup.
Downside risk lives around $113k if the first breakout attempt fails.
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