Daily News || BTC Stalls Below $112.6k as Jobs Revision Shocks — All Eyes on PPI/CPI
Rate-cut odds firm, gold stays bid; crypto likely range-bound until this week’s inflation prints clear.
🪙 Crypto Market
Bitcoin slid back toward $111,000 after an unusual reaction to the -900k BLS jobs revisions. The drop looked mainly technical: price failed to clear the former weekly high near $113,300 and still hasn’t closed above $112,600, a level bulls need to reclaim to neutralize near-term downside risk.
Macro overlay: U.S. equities finished higher and rate-cut odds nudged up, while gold extended strength. Even so, traders remain cautious into PPI (Wed) and CPI (Thu)—and the chop could persist right up to the Sept 17 FOMC.
Flows/positioning & breadth
Short-term momentum/participation gauges leaned sell yesterday and again this morning—consistent with more intraday chop.
Open interest and funding are rising, spot premia are muted, and hedging activity from larger players has picked up—rallies likely need firmer spot demand to stick.
Order-book scans show bids reappearing on dips; that pattern has preceded recoveries in recent weeks.
Daily Active Addresses show a bullish divergence, favoring a retest of $113k.
“Top-trader” cohorts bought the dip, while retail interest continues to fade—often constructive for base-building.
On-chain context
Accumulator wallets (addresses that historically only buy) pushed to all-time highs—a positive ownership signal.
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio turned up, implying growing dry powder relative to BTC—conditions that can power the next leg higher once resistance breaks.
Levels that matter
Must-reclaim: $112.6k (daily closes above = bulls back in control), then $113.3k.
Upside magnets on follow-through: $115–116k; above that, $119–122k.
Supports: $111k intraday; $109.6k first risk line; lose that and the market likely retests $107k.
Time-frame check
Lower time frames are improving (supportive for rebounds), but the 3-day trend composite is still not outright positive. A few strong sessions are needed to flip the larger bias.
🌍 Global Macro & Markets
Geopolitics: A more conciliatory tone from Iran cooled some regional risk premium; Europe’s tape is capped by French political noise and soft German data.
FX & rates: The dollar bounced as growth angst resurfaced; U.S. 10-yr yields edged higher again (around the low-4s).
Commodities: Gold remains elevated after recent spikes; oil is firmer on supply headlines.
Equities: Tech led a modest advance; AI/data-center earnings and guidance are keeping beta supported even as macro is noisy.
📌 Key Takeaways
BTC is range-bound into PPI/CPI: $109.6k–$113.3k is the operative band; $112.6k is the daily close bulls must win back.
Participation signals are still mixed: short-term pressure vs. improving bids and on-chain activity.
Ownership quality is improving (accumulators ATH, stablecoin buying power rising), but spot demand needs to show up on breaks.
Scenario map:
Hold >$112.6k and clear $113.3k → $115–116k, then $119–122k.
Lose $109.6k → risk a $107k retest before any higher.
🔭 Positioning & Strategy Snapshot
Short-term: Waiting for daily closes above $112.6k or a cleaner retest into $109.6k that holds.
Medium-term: Constructive while weekly closes grind higher; a > $119.6k weekly finish would tee up the $150k run.
Long-term: Cycle roadmap still points to higher highs over coming quarters if policy eases and liquidity trends persist.
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