Daily News: September Starts Soft: Bitcoin Searches for Support Near $107k
Seasonally weak month meets fragile risk appetite; data and policy headlines could quickly swing the tone.
đȘ Crypto Market
Bitcoin opened September under pressure, probing for buyers around $107,000. Seasonality isnât helpingâSeptember has a poor track record for risk assets, crypto included, even during broader bull cycles. Still, the right mix of macro data that strengthens the case for a U.S. rate cut could put BTC back on track.
Augustâs close was lackluster, and total crypto market cap failed to reclaim a key trendline. Even so, historical pattern work (e.g., 2017 vs. now) suggests this part of the cycle can still resolve higher if support holds and catalysts cooperate.
Short-Term Signals & Levels
Near-term exhaustion/buy signals are close to âcomplete,â but they typically require a marginal lower daily low before they trigger convincingly. If that wick lower appears and BTC rebounds toward $109k, a quick $112k retest is plausible.
Derivatives/liquidation maps still argue a dip toward ~$107.3k cleans out high-leverage longs; above $111kâ$112k sits a band of short liquidations that could fuel a squeeze on a rebound.
Retail long positioning remains elevated on several venues; a fuller sentiment reset may require one more flush.
Trend/momentum gauges remain tilted bearish for now. A stabilization or rollover lower in those gauges would raise the odds that a durable low is forming.
What We Expect
A first rebound target remains $114k. How price behaves there matters:
Break above $114k: opens a path to $117k and keeps the medium-term uptrend viable.
Fail at $114k: keeps the door open to $104k.
If BTC cannot bounce in the $107kâ$106k area, risk shifts toward $104k next.
Monthly Pivots (reference levels)
BTC: Pivot â $113,338; stretch target (R3) â $138,000
ETH: Pivot â $4,222; stretch target (R3) â $6,348
SOL: Pivot â $193.2; stretch target (R3) â $282
Use these as context zones rather than precise signals; they align with where sizable liquidation pockets sit.
Positioning & Flows
Top-tier accounts still show steady conviction around the $118k cost area on BTC, implying expectations for a snapback if macro doesnât deteriorate. Weâll watch for confirmation via a turn in momentum/strength metrics and continued improvement in spot demand and ETF flows.
đ Global Macro & Markets
A U.S. appeals court ruled that the administrationâs globally applied tariffs lacked legal basisâan outcome that may head to the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powellâs dovish-leaning Jackson Hole remarks keep September rate-cut bets alive. Fridayâs PCE print aligned with forecasts (m/m 0.3%, y/y 2.9%), reinforcing the view that upside inflation risks are contained.
In Europe, Franceâs political strains added headline risk but limited market impact so far. In the U.S., questions around central-bank independence stay in focus amid ongoing legal wrangling involving a Fed governorâan uncertainty that markets are monitoring closely.
Pricing snapshot (recent trend):
USD: Early-week strength faded; EUR/USD ended roughly flat.
Gold/Silver: Bid returned post-PCE; both advanced >2% last week and started this week firm.
Rates: Front-end U.S. yields eased on cut expectations; very long maturities steadied on policy-risk premium.
Oil: Brent holds a choppy range near $66â68 amid muted geopolitics.
Equities: Risk tone mildly positive; the S&P 500 notched a fresh high intra-week, then finished flat. U.S. markets are closed today for a holiday.
This weekâs key data/events: Eurozone CPI (Tue), U.S. ISM Manufacturing (Tue), and U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (Fri)âeach capable of nudging rate-cut probabilities and, by extension, crypto sentiment.
đ Key Takeaways
BTC is testing buyers near $107k into a seasonally weak month.
A brief lower-low + quick rebound could set up a $112k â $114k retest.
Retail longs remain sticky; one more flush could complete the sentiment reset.
Break above $114k targets $117k; failure risks $104k.
Macro catalysts (Eurozone CPI, ISM, NFP) likely steer near-term direction.
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