December Opens With a Shakeout as Bitcoin Slides Toward 85K
BTC tests November’s lows, but improving macro signals, high-timeframe liquidity pockets and model conditions keep the broader outlook nuanced.
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
December began with a sharp selloff across crypto, dragging Bitcoin toward 85,000 USD without any specific news catalyst. The move looks like the market deliberately pressing toward November’s lows — a common behavior after multi-week declines as price attempts to confirm or invalidate the prior bottom.
New monthly pivots add context: the monthly pivot now sits near 94,000 USD, while the weekly pivot is around 89,500 USD. Meanwhile, higher-timeframe trend indicators show early stress, with the monthly signal producing its first bearish reading since the prior bear market.
⚙️ Technical Picture
Despite the drop, there is a case for cautious optimism. Markets often pull back toward prior lows before a broader reversal, and BTC has built notable bullish divergence up to the weekly pivot zone.
Our momentum model has also weakened sharply, which historically precedes environments where internal conditions improve even as price makes one last low. A lower-low scenario into the 80,000–76,000 USD zone remains possible — and could even prove constructive if divergence forms.
Liquidation dynamics reinforce this view. Significant upside liquidations remain untouched across BTC and many alts, making the abrupt downside extension somewhat suspicious. Compressing price into liquidation clusters is usually the “setup” phase for a move in the opposite direction once clearing occurs.
Still, sellers have arguments too.
• The monthly Ichimoku conversion line sits near 80,000 USD, an obvious magnet.
• BTC is already below the midpoint of the weekly cloud, an early bearish sign.
• A megaphone structure still carries a bearish completion target near 77,000 USD, which aligns with major trendline support.
As discussed in earlier analyses, large wallets holding multiple millions in stablecoins have not meaningfully entered the dip — a pattern that deserves close monitoring because whale participation has historically defined major recoveries.
📊 On-Chain & Market Flow
Our model continues to decline, and this can be interpreted two ways:
• In the near term, risk sentiment remains soft.
• But on multi-day views, such drops often precede constructive divergence that fuels the next trend.
Whale positioning remains light for now, yet broader liquidity conditions are expected to improve into December. Macro supports this: softer dollar conditions, probability of rate cuts, and improving risk appetite across commodities signal a more favorable backdrop compared with November.
💬 Final Thoughts
The current move appears to be the classic “test the low before deciding direction” phase. If BTC breaks 85,000 USD decisively, the lower-low zone becomes likely. If buyers defend the region, December could unfold far differently than last month.
This is a moment where patience and clear levels matter more than predictions.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term — Pending
Watching for long-side opportunities but not acting until structure stabilizes.
Medium-Term — Pending
Similar stance. A cleaner trend signal is required before engaging.
Long-Term — Long
Cycle thesis remains intact toward 230,000 USD, conditional on 72,000 USD holding.
Entry: 79,000 USD
Stop: 65,000 USD
Target: 180,000 USD