Deep Dive: Bitcoin vs. S&P & Gold — Divergence and Catch-Up Risk
BTC lags while equities and gold rally — can crypto close the gap?
Crypto Market Focus
Bitcoin is stabilizing after its recent dip toward $109,000, triggered by weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Attention now turns to the August labor market report, where consensus sees payroll growth of around 75k, unemployment inching higher to 4.3%, and wage growth easing further. Revisions to prior months could also sway sentiment. A softening job market would raise pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates, even with inflation still a concern. Volatility around the release is likely.
Divergence Watch: BTC vs. Equities and Gold
Since the start of August, Bitcoin has slipped about 4%, while the S&P 500 has gained over 3% and gold nearly 4.5%. This gap is unusual given the stronger correlations between crypto and equities since 2022. Historically, such divergences often close with digital assets playing catch-up—unless incoming labor data dramatically shifts rate expectations.
Structural Shifts: Crypto Treasuries Under Scrutiny
Nasdaq has tightened requirements for companies raising equity to buy Bitcoin or other digital assets. Public firms using this approach now face stricter shareholder approvals, heavier disclosure rules, and potential delisting if standards aren’t met.
Scale of activity: In 2025 alone, more than 150 U.S.-listed firms announced nearly $100B in crypto-related fundraising. Collectively, these vehicles hold over 4.5% of total Bitcoin supply.
Implications: New deals will face longer timelines, higher due diligence, and more scrutiny. Existing players may be forced to diversify into real operations instead of relying solely on holding Bitcoin.
Investor takeaway: These stocks can amplify Bitcoin’s volatility. A rule of thumb—when BTC drops once, these companies’ shares often fall multiple times, due to additional pressures like capital raises and option issuance.
Altcoin & Meme Coin Highlights
Solana ecosystem: Activity around creator tokens and even tokenized Pokémon cards is attracting speculative interest. Despite some crashes from forced sales, liquidity from larger buyers has quickly returned.
Meme coins: Projects like Dogecoin, Little Pepe, and newer entrants continue to generate chatter. One Trump-linked token has surged on political and whale-driven flows, while others experiment with “mine-to-earn” models or exclusive IP rights to stand out in a crowded space.
Key Takeaways
Bitcoin is lagging equities and gold, raising the odds of a catch-up move if macro data cooperates.
U.S. jobs report and revisions will be crucial for Fed rate expectations and near-term crypto direction.
Stricter listing rules mark the end of the free-for-all era for crypto treasury firms, adding pressure on smaller players.
Altcoin markets remain highly experimental, with both risks and fast-moving opportunities.
📌 This “Deep Dive” is part of SignalBoat’s thematic analysis series, published alongside our Daily and Weekly briefings.
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