Holiday Hours Distort BTC Signals as Liquidation Risks Build Below || Nov 28, 2025
Bitcoin hovers near 91K while positioning, leverage, and a CME outage create an unstable short-term backdrop.
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin is holding around 91,000 USD, but very short-term positioning and liquidation data point to instability. U.S. markets close early today, which almost guarantees muted conditions until Sunday’s reopen. The situation became more complicated after a technical outage took CME futures offline — with no clear answer yet on how that will influence today’s options expirations. What is clear: dealers benefit from BTC remaining under the 91K line.
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⚙️ Technical Picture
Current intraday positioning shows traders running unusually high leverage on the long side, which often precedes a swift reset. Below spot sits a concentrated liquidation band near 86,000 USD, a level large enough to attract price even during quiet holiday sessions.
Short-term volatility is likely to increase, with choppy two-way movement possible over the coming hours. Once that clears — likely next week — the higher-timeframe setup argues for a retest of the 93,800 USD region and potentially slightly above. The weekly Ichimoku cloud remains the primary structure guiding this view.
📊 On-Chain & Market Flow
Our model shows mixed signals. Momentum conditions have weakened slightly, but some internal components tied to liquidity still point to potential upward pressure once short-term leverage clears out. Despite this, no constructive signal is active, and broader multi-day flow readings remain cautious rather than supportive.
Retail positioning and top-trader behavior are split. Retail is increasingly short across several pairs — typically a positive sign — while high-balance traders at major venues remain defensive. The combination increases the probability of a fake move higher before a more directional leg unfolds.
🪙 Altcoin Liquidation Watch
Altcoins are flashing their own warning signs.
SOL has a large liquidation block below 100 USD, a magnet that market makers rarely ignore. Many high-liquidity alts show similar patterns: heavy downside clusters 30% or more beneath spot, with smaller upside pockets sitting only a few percent above.
ASTER reflects this dynamic clearly — tight upside liquidations paired with much deeper downside blocks. This supports the idea of a brief squeeze higher, followed by continuation lower once the higher pockets are cleared.
XRP stands out as one of the few large caps holding relative strength near the top of the leaderboard outside BTC, further reinforcing how uneven the structure is.
The line in the sand remains clear: BTC stabilizing above 98,000 USD would invalidate the bearish continuation thesis.
💬 Final Thoughts
December opens with thin liquidity, conflicting signals, and a futures-market outage — not the cleanest environment for clarity. The reaction around the weekly cloud will define whether BTC resets lower first or heads directly into the 93–95K zone to complete the higher-timeframe test.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term — Pending
Choice of direction hinges on how BTC behaves against the weekly cloud. No confirmed setup.
Medium-Term — Pending
Caution until flows resolve.
Long-Term — Pending
Considering exiting long exposure around 93–95K if reached.
Entry: 79,000 USD
Stop: 65,000 USD
Target: 180,000 USD