Near the Edge: Panic or the Last Good Entry? || Nov 04, 2025
Bitcoin’s slide toward $105K rattles sentiment as fear spikes and key supports come into view.
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin fell toward $105,000 after another sharp risk-off swing. Explanations ranged from legacy whales and exchange issues to a soft ISM print — but the cleaner story is forced positioning: price rejected the heavy open-interest wall near $111K and flushed liquidity pockets down to $108K–$105K.
Sentiment cracked: several altcoins lost key levels and the fear gauge retreated toward readings last seen when BTC traded near $80K in April. Historically, such outlier fear days often form near important lows — provided price avoids a fresh breakdown.
📅 Want Our Full Analysis, 7 Days a Week?
Today’s post may be one of our free weekly issues, but Premium members unlock all 7 daily issues. (You can see on our Calendar)
Premium also includes:
• Exclusive Deep Dives – At least 1 extra strategy report per week.
• On-Demand Reviews – Request analysis on popular coins / tokens.All of this — for just $0.19 a day.
That’s less than a coffee… for full crypto clarity, every single morning. ☕💡
⚙️ Technical Picture
What broke it: A classic 50% Fib rejection near $116,000—a textbook short-term bearish tell.
First line to hold: $105,000–$104,000. Lose $104K and the door opens to a deeper $101K–$100K liquidity sweep.
Trap risk: Below $107,100 (weekly pivot area) the path of least resistance stays down.
Bounce path: Defend $104K–$105K, reclaim $107K and then $110K, and short-liquidation magnets cluster around $113,000.
Bottom line: $104,000 is the line in the sand. A daily close back above $110K would neutralize immediate downside and re-target $113K.
📊 On-Chain & Market Flow
Order books: Fresh spot bids reappeared across 2%, 5% and 10% depths on the way to $105K. That’s not a guarantee of a turn, but it’s typical behavior near tradable lows.
Participants: Our positioning read shows top-tier traders shifting bullish after the dip, eyeing rebounds toward $120K.
Activity: Several majors (including BTC and names like AAVE) printed elevated daily active address streaks, a pattern that historically aligns with late-stage selloffs and base-building.
Reset: The supply-in-profit metric snapped back toward ~80%, a healthy reset that often precedes rallies with more runway.
Our momentum model: downside pressure is still present but fading. Confirmation requires price to hold $104K–$105K and push through $110K.
🧨 Liquidations & Scenarios
Nearby shorts to tag: ~$112K–$113K.
Nearest long clusters: Much further below (next sizeable pool ~$84K), making any clean reclaim of $110K prone to a fast chase higher.
Bear case: Break $104K → gravity toward $101K–$100K.
Capitulation line: A decisive failure below $98K would likely target $84K–$74K (cycle damage). That’s not base case if $100K holds.
🔎 ETH & SOL Watch
ETH: Must regain $3,730 to avoid a slide toward $3,160. A push back above $3,730 would relieve immediate pressure.
SOL: $173 is last notable support; a break risks $130. Both paths are BTC-dependent—Bitcoin has to leave the danger zone first.
💬 Final Thoughts
We’re in the hot zone: fear is stretched, order-book support reappeared, and several flow metrics suggest capitulation risk is elevated but not confirmed. The $104K–$105K defense is critical. Hold it and reclaim $110K, and a squeeze toward $113K can develop quickly. Lose it, and we likely complete the $101K–$100K sweep before any durable turn.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term (Days): Neutral / High volatility — Watching $104K–$105K for defense, $110K for confirmation
Medium-Term (Weeks): Bullish above $116K
Long-Term (Months): Cycle target ~ $230K valid unless $72K fails
🔔 Premium Signals
🔔 Premium Signals 👉 Access premium signals