Shakeout or Shift? BTC Hovers at 103K as CPI & Fed Rhetoric Bite || Nov 13, 2025
A market-maker rumor and hawkish Fed chatter hit crypto; bulls must defend 102.6–103K or risk a deeper sweep before 110K–113.8K remains in play.
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin’s Wednesday turned messy. After remarks from a Fed governor arguing for rates to stay high “for some time,” a fresh wave of selling hit crypto. Desk chatter pointed to large systematic supply from a major market maker, which fits 2025’s playbook: push price lower, trigger liquidations, and rinse leverage.
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Into today, the story is binary. If 102,600–103,000 USD holds, this looks like a clean shakeout. Lose it decisively and the door opens to a quick probe into 97,000–95,000 USD before buyers try again. Macro remains noisy: the U.S. government re-opening process is progressing, CPI lands this week, and several Fed voices are active. Net: choppy, headline-sensitive risk appetite.
⚙️ Technical Picture
Line in the sand: 102,600–103,000 USD. Hold it → odds favor a run back to the week’s highs.
If/then path:
If price reclaims Wednesday’s high and clears 104,600 → 107,000 USD, momentum opens 110,000, then 113,800 USD (key confluence from 50% retraces/mid-band).
If price fails to reclaim and rolls over, expect 97–95K stops to get hunted before a stronger base forms.
Context: Monday’s rejection near ~107K was the 50% retrace of the prior leg — softness noted, but higher-timeframe structure is intact while 98K holds. Below that, risk expands swiftly.
ETF proxy price action shows a bullish reversal structure resting on long-term trend support — another reason bulls shouldn’t let ~103K slip for long.
📊 On-Chain & Market Flow
Exchange supply: New cycle lows for BTC on exchanges — supply isn’t rushing to sell. ETH exchange balances have fallen even faster, a constructive cross-signal.
Short-term holders: STH MVRV (~0.95) suggests capitulation pressure is easing; loss-taking abates as weak hands thin out.
Positioning: Leverage data show retail chasing longs earlier in the week; now we’re seeing frustration flip to net shorting, which can fuel squeezes if spot bids appear.
Our read: Our momentum model is neutralizing after the dump — not decisively bullish yet, but consistent with a bottoming attempt above 102.6–103K. Alt-leaders (LINK/ETH/AAVE) look comparatively firmer on near-term setups.
🌍 Global Macro & Markets (Quick Take)
Policy & growth: The U.S. government’s re-opening path supports risk, while softer jobs data keep December cut odds alive. Several Fed officials still argue for patience, keeping a cap on euphoria.
FX & rates: DXY has cooled modestly; UST 10-year yields are contained as markets price a shallower path of cuts.
Equities & commodities: Tech remains choppy (deal flow and AI-linked headlines drive rotation). Oil slipped on supply signals; precious metals held gains as policy uncertainty lingers.
Asia & Europe: Europe’s sentiment is mixed; Asia digests a slower-stimulus stance out of China — all netting to “cautious risk-on,” easily derailed by a hot CPI print.
💬 Final Thoughts
Yesterday looked like engineered pressure more than a thesis change. If 102.6–103K survives and we see a swift reclaim of 104.6–107K, the path to 110K → 113.8K remains the base case. Fail that test and we’ll likely print a marginal new low before the next leg gets a fair shot. This is a close call on timing, not a collapse in structure — unless 98K gives way.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term: Neutral / Volatile
Medium-Term: Bullish above 116,800 USD
Long-Term: Cycle target ~230,000 USD unless 72,000 USD fails
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