🇺🇸 Special Sunday Analysis (Free for this week) || When Cycle Indicators Fail
Classic top signals missed the peak, on-chain metrics are drifting toward value zones, and stablecoin dominance is flashing a warning that most traders are ignoring.
🪙 Market Overview
The market has corrected sharply since the October high.
What makes this phase unusual is not just the drawdown — it’s the fact that many of the traditional “cycle top” indicators never triggered properly.
Historically, Bitcoin cycles have displayed clear warning signs near macro tops:
Extreme moving-average extensions
Overheated on-chain multiples
Long-term holder distribution spikes
This time, most of them failed to reach their historical extremes.
That leaves us in a difficult place:
Has the cycle structurally failed?
Or did it never complete?
To answer that, we need to separate what didn’t work from what still matters.
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📊 The Indicators That Missed
2-Year Moving Average Multiplier
Historically a reliable macro top framework.
This cycle:
Price never reached the typical red-zone extension.
The signal simply underperformed expectations.
That weak extension suggests:
Either diminishing cycle amplitude,
Or a structurally weaker bull phase than prior cycles.
200-Week Moving Average Heat Map
Useful historically for identifying overheated conditions.
This cycle:
We never reached the extreme overheated zone.
Tops formed without classic heat-map confirmation.
Conclusion:
Topping behavior is less explosive than previous cycles.
Power Multiple (Miner Revenue-Based Model)
Designed to detect overheating through miner profitability expansion.
This cycle:
Lower highs on the model.
No extreme red-zone extension.
Suggests diminishing marginal upside strength.
More interestingly:
The bottoming side of this indicator is approaching meaningful territory — but not yet at maximum historical value.
Stock-to-Flow Model
Once widely followed.
This cycle:
Failed entirely.
Target levels were never approached.
Predictive power appears structurally compromised.
This model can now be treated as narrative, not framework.
Pi Cycle & Golden Ratio Multipliers
Both historically associated with macro tops.
This cycle:
No meaningful trigger.
No blow-off confirmation.
No parabolic exhaustion behavior.
Again:
The cycle looks incomplete — but not necessarily healthy.
🔎 On-Chain — Where Things Get More Interesting
Unlike the topping models, bottoming metrics are starting to matter.
Reserve Risk
Comparing price vs long-term holder confidence.
Moving closer to historically attractive accumulation zones.
Not yet extreme — but approaching.
MVRV Z-Score
Failed at calling the top.
However:
Historically effective near deep value zones.
Approaching levels where long-term entries become statistically interesting.
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
Lower highs on cycle expansions.
Drifting toward value territory.
Still not at maximum pain — but trending in that direction.
Value Days Destroyed (VDD)
Measures long-term holder distribution spikes.
We have not seen a massive capitulation spike yet.
Translation:
Maximum pain likely not printed.
💵 The Most Important Chart Right Now: USDT Dominance
This is the chart few want to discuss.
USDT dominance:
Strong monthly momentum
Above the cloud structure
MACD bullish on higher timeframes
Bull flag formation visible
Capital is moving into stablecoins, not risk.
Since October:
USDT dominance has nearly doubled.
That is not bullish for crypto.
Unless this reverses, rallies are likely to fade.
📉 Total Crypto Market Cap
Monthly timeframe:
Price under base/conversion lines
Natural magnet = lower cloud support
Zone between ~1.9T and ~1.7T looks like logical downside magnet
Two-week timeframe:
MACD sell signal active
Second close below cloud likely increases pressure
Broad market structure remains fragile.
⚙️ Bitcoin — The Line in the Sand
The most critical level:
$65,000
A break below:
Opens acceleration risk
Confirms downside continuation
Likely drags broader market aggressively lower
Until Bitcoin reclaims structural resistance zones, rallies should be treated cautiously.
🧠 Cycle Interpretation
This cycle is different in one critical way:
We did not get classic blow-off signals.
We are not getting classic capitulation signals either.
That leaves us in transition.
Possibilities:
A structurally weakened cycle that never completed
A delayed final expansion
A broader multi-month reset before next leg
At the moment, stablecoin flows suggest caution dominates.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term
Momentum weak. Rallies fade quickly. No confirmed reversal signals.
Medium-Term
Watching for deep value zones via on-chain metrics. Not yet at historical extreme accumulation levels.
Long-Term
If structural supports hold and stablecoin dominance rolls over, cycle continuation remains possible.
If $65K fails decisively, assumptions must adjust lower.
💬 Final Thoughts
Markets feel boring.
But boring markets at structural edges are not harmless — they are decision points.
Cycle top indicators failed.
Bottoming indicators are approaching relevance.
Stablecoin dominance is rising.
This is not a buy-the-dip environment by default.
It is a wait-for-confirmation environment.
Patience now is not weakness.
It is edge preservation.
Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research or consult a professional adviser before making investment decisions.