Special Sunday Analysis (SSA) || One More Leg? Bitcoin’s Extension Map, ETH’s Trap Zone, and the Liquidation Magnet
We walk through Fibonacci extension targets on BTC and ETH, why the market stopped at a “weird” level, and how liquidation clusters and weekly clouds set the next high-risk decision points.
Too Long; Didn’t Read
BTC
Current downswing has already hit the 2.618 Fib extension from the 126 K top / 107 K breakdown sequence and bounced.
Classical bear moves tend to stretch to 3.0 rather than halt at 2.618 — and on the monthly chart that 3.0 extension lines up with the last major Ichimoku support.
The 200-week MA almost perfectly intersects with the 4.236 extension around 64–65 K — the “nuclear” scenario if everything breaks.
Weekly cloud:
Hold / reclaim above the top of the weekly cloud (~93–94 K) → “emergency over” for this leg, opens path back toward 110 K.
Rejection near ~91–93 K → much higher odds of a new lower low, testing the 3.0 extension and maybe worse.
Our model still points to a lower low as the more likely outcome before this downside phase is done, unless we see a very strong reclaim of the weekly cloud.
ETH
Structure: high near the yearly peak, breakout base around 3 800 $, failed swing near 3 680 $.
Extensions:
0.786 of the leg has been tested and held short-term.
100 % extension comes in near 2 490 $, lining up almost perfectly with the monthly Ichimoku cloud.
Liquidation map suggests:
First a push up toward ~3 150 $ to clear nearby long liquidations.
Then a drop toward the 2 600 $ zone, which aligns with the final extension cluster + cloud support.
A deeper “doom” extension toward ~1 668 $ exists on paper, but that requires a much more aggressive breakdown and is not the base case.
Liquidations
BTC: major nearby liquidation clusters around ~91.7 K (upside) and ~71 K (downside).
ETH: near-term liquidations stacked around 3 150 $, with a lower block near 2 600 $ that matches key extensions / cloud support.
Big Picture
Base case:
Short term: one more push up to clear liquidations → final extension low → then a more durable rally attempt.
Bear “tail risk”: rejection at the cloud, no stabilization, and a slide toward the full 4.236 extension (BTC mid-60 K, ETH sub-2 K).
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
This Sunday’s focus is deliberately technical and unapologetically uncomfortable.
Bitcoin has:
Broken down from a year-long 124 K–107 K range.
Tagged multiple Fibonacci extension targets to the downside.
Stopped, for now, at a “non-standard” 2.618 leg instead of the cleaner 3.0.
At the same time, ETH has:
Broken its 3 800 $ base.
Failed to reclaim the 3 680 $ swing.
Settled just above a 0.786 retracement, with its true 100 % extension still open lower.
Layered on top:
Weekly and monthly Ichimoku clouds are now intersecting with the same extension levels.
Liquidation heatmaps show large clusters exactly around those targets.
When extensions, clouds, and liquidation magnets line up, the market often accelerates directly into them. That’s the environment we’re trading.
🎓 Educational Corner — Fibonacci Extension Targets (0.23 → 4.236)
This week’s educational topic is Fibonacci extension targets: how to build them and how they actually behaved in the current BTC / ETH drawdown.
What they are
Standard retracements measure pullbacks inside a trend (38.2 %, 50 %, 61.8 %).
Extensions measure where a move is likely to travel beyond the prior swing:
Commonly from 0.236 → 1.0 → 1.618 → 2.618 → 3.0 → 4.236 and so on.
They are not magic numbers. They become useful when:
You pick structurally meaningful swing points.
You combine them with other tools (clouds, MAs, liquidations, patterns).
How to construct them (properly)
You need three points:
A significant low or breakout base.
A major high (where the prior trend stalled).
A meaningful swing / failed retest after that high.
Only when price breaks and retests the base do extensions become “live”. Otherwise, you’re just drawing noise.
⚙️ Bitcoin — From 126 K to the Extension Ladder
1. The swing sequence
On a 12-hour BTC chart, the current leg can be described like this:
Long consolidation between ~124 K and ~107 K.
Breakdown when price started closing below ~107 K — the key structural base.
Subsequent retest of that base from below (~107 K), then failure and acceleration down.
A lower swing high around 116 K that we’ve discussed in prior notes as a key rejection area.
From that sequence:
High: ~126 K.
Breakdown base: ~107 K.
Retest swing: ~116 K (confirms the top of the last distribution).
Using that structure, the extension ladder delivered:
100 % extension: ~97 K – taken out.
1.618 extension: ~90 K – taken out with force.
2.618 extension: hit this week and produced a precise bounce.
That’s where we sit now — hovering above a 2.618 extension, which is not where strong bear legs normally stop.
2. Why 2.618 is “weird” and 3.0 matters
In strong bear phases:
Moves often extend to 3.0x the measured leg.
The fact that BTC stopped at 2.618 feels “off” relative to the violence of the move.
On the monthly chart:
The 3.0 extension aligns almost perfectly with the final major Ichimoku support band.
This gives a very clean, structurally satisfying target if the market decides to print a complete washout.
Translation:
If BTC rejects from lower clouds / resistance and rolls over, the 3.0 band is the natural magnet for a final capitulation low.
3. The ugliest line on the chart: 4.236 & the 200-week MA
A third piece of complementary analysis:
The 4.236 extension intersects almost perfectly with the 200-week moving average, around 64–65 K.
That combination (far extension + 200-week) is the “everything breaks” scenario:
Massive equity stress.
Crypto capitulation.
Large forced liquidations and risk-off across the board.
That path is not the base case, but it’s on the map and it’s well defined.
☁️ Bitcoin — Clouds, Extensions, and Our Model
Now layer in the Ichimoku and our internal model.
Weekly & monthly clouds
Weekly:
Price has broken below the base and conversion lines and is now flirting with the cloud boundary.
If BTC breaks into the weekly cloud and sits there, history says:
Expect back-and-forth sell-offs inside the cloud.
Rallies tend to get sold until the entire structure resolves lower.
Monthly:
The monthly cloud lines up with the 3.0 extension as the last meaningful support.
Lose that, and the 4.236 / 200-week MA zone becomes the next logical target.
Key weekly thresholds:
Top of weekly cloud: ~93–94 K
Close the week above it: we’ve “exited the burning building” and invalidated the worst case for this leg.
Rejection zone: ~91–93 K
Strong rejection from here → very likely one more lower low, probably toward the 3.0 extension band.
Model read
Our internal model (the same one that flagged extreme conditions in prior legs) still suggests:
A lower low is more likely than not before this downside phase fully completes.
That lower low probably aligns with:
The 3.0 extension on BTC.
A final flush in ETH toward its own extension / cloud confluence.
Only a convincing reclaim of the weekly cloud and sustained trade above it would materially soften that view.
🧮 Ethereum — Extensions, Clouds, and the “Trap” Rally
ETH’s structure is similar in spirit, but with its own geometry.
1. Building ETH’s extension map
Sequence:
High of the year acts as the top anchor.
Breakout base: around 3 800 $ — an area repeatedly respected by daily closes and prior structures.
Swing high / failure: around 3 680 $, where price tried and failed to retest the base before breaking down.
From that structure:
ETH has already moved down to the 0.786 retracement and is trying to stabilize there.
The 100 % extension of the leg projects to ~2 490 $.
On the monthly chart, the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud sits right on top of that 2 490 $ area.
That’s the ETH version of BTC’s 3.0 + cloud confluence.
2. “Too far?” — the 1.618 panic target
Mathematically, ETH’s full extension band would stretch all the way down toward ~1 668 $.
Realistically:
Hitting 2 490 $ already implies a deep, aggressive washout.
1 668 $ likely requires a much more systemic break in BTC and macro.
It’s on the map, but not the base case.
3. ETH liquidation heatmap — the trap sequence
Liquidations add one more layer:
Near-term upside liquidations cluster around ~3 150 $:
Market can very plausibly push up early in the week to clean those out.
Below current price, the next serious liquidation block is near ~2 600 $, which:
Aligns with the final extension zone discussed above.
Sits close to the monthly cloud and extension confluence.
So the ETH playbook described in the webinar is:
Short-term bounce toward ~3 150 $ to harvest upside liquidations.
Then one more leg lower toward ~2 600 $ (2 490–2 600 $ band), where:
Extensions,
Cloud support,
And liquidations all converge.
If that zone holds and bounces, the low is likely in.
If it fails, ETH tracks BTC into the deeper extension scenarios.
💣 Liquidations — The Invisible Gravity
The final piece is how liquidations can “pull” price into those technical zones.
Bitcoin
Largest nearby liquidation block:
Upside: around 91 K–92 K.
Downside: around 71 K.
If BTC follows the extension script:
A rejection below the weekly cloud → continuation lower toward extension / cloud levels → those deeper blocks become active targets.
Remember: liquidation maps evolve:
As liquidity is taken, some future levels vanish.
New aggressive leverage appears elsewhere.
But as of the snapshot used in the webinar, 91–92 K and 71 K are the key magnets.
Ethereum
Current map suggests:
First, a push toward ~3 150 $ to clear upside liquidation pockets.
Then a drive down toward ~2 600 $, aligning with the final extension band and monthly cloud.
If ETH instead breaks and holds above the 3 150 $ liquidation band and pushes toward ~3 500 $, the bear extension scenario becomes much harder to execute and starts to get negated.
💬 Final Thoughts
The technical picture is incredibly clean and incredibly uncomfortable:
BTC is somewhere between the 2.618 and 3.0 extension of its breakdown leg, with:
Monthly cloud and higher extensions defining the extreme downside.
Weekly cloud and 93–94 K defining the “emergency exit” on the upside.
ETH looks set for:
A near-term trap rally into 3 150 $.
Then a potential washout toward 2 600 $ if BTC cooperates.
Our model still leans toward a lower low to finish the move, unless we get a decisive weekly close back above the cloud.
In plain language:
The market probably isn’t done hurting people yet. But the map of where it wants to hurt them is unusually precise.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term (1–3 days)
BTC
Watch 90–93 K reaction:
Strong reclaim toward 93–94 K → possibility of a squeeze into 97–101 K.
Weak bounce / rejection near 91–93 K → expect extension continuation lower.
ETH
Expect a push toward 3 150 $ to clear liquidations.
Aggressive traders can fade that move with tight risk if BTC is rejecting cloud levels.
Medium-Term (1–4 weeks)
Base case path
BTC fails to reclaim the weekly cloud convincingly.
One more drive into the 3.0 extension band.
ETH flushes into the 2 490–2 600 $ region.
Both find support at the cloud / extension confluence, then bounce.
Bear tail risk
Rejection at cloud + macro stress → BTC follows the full extension ladder toward 64–65 K, ETH threatens the 1.618 zone.
Long-Term
As long as BTC eventually stabilizes at an extension + cloud cluster and reclaims weekly structure, the broader cycle can still be framed as:
A brutal mid-cycle flush, not the end of the secular trend.
If, instead, we see:
Sustained trade below the monthly cloud and 200-week MA,
Our long-term cycle thesis has to be downgraded from “bull interrupted” to “new regime”.