The Bounce Before the Trap || Nov 24, 2025
Bitcoin trades near 87K after last week’s 81K flush, but short-term strength may mask deeper risks as momentum signals, macro pressure, and market structure warn of new lows.
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin is hovering around 87,000 USD after the violent wipeout toward 81,000 USD last week. Traders remain tense, and liquidity is thin across majors. Risk assets improved slightly after dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams, but the broader mood is still defensive.
MicroStrategy is back in focus as it closed below its 200-week EMA. Reports hinting at a large short position being built by JP Morgan add an extra layer of stress to sentiment. Crypto is stabilizing, but no one is mistaking this for a healthy market yet.
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⚙️ Technical Picture
Lower-time-frame structure supports a push toward 91,000–94,000 USD, driven by bullish intraday MACD divergence. That’s the easy part. The harder part is determining whether this recovery is simply a relief bounce inside a broader downtrend.
Both the weekly and monthly MACD remain firmly in sell mode. Weekly momentum hasn’t reset despite the 81,000 USD crash, and the monthly signal is only just starting to turn lower. Historically, that setup has allowed several weeks—or even months—of pressure.
The critical zone this week sits between 90,000 and 94,000 USD. A clean rejection at 91,000 USD would signal deeper downside. A break toward 93,000–94,000 USD would offer a chance for dip-buyers, even if a mild new low forms afterward.
📊 On-Chain & Market Flow
Bitcoin’s on-chain picture continues to look healthier than the chart. Mean Dollar Invested Age has dropped sharply—often a hallmark of long-term accumulation and renewed network activity.
The metric essentially tracks the “average age” of capital in the network. When it falls, it suggests previously dormant supply is moving with intent, typically a constructive sign during late-stage corrections.
Meanwhile, our model is at its highest caution reading of the year. Historically, such extremes appear near multi-month turning points, but not always immediately at the low. Divergence between rising model readings and falling price warns that Bitcoin may need one more leg down before a durable reversal can begin.
💬 Final Thoughts
The central story this week is simple: How far can the bounce travel?
A rally into the 91,000–94,000 USD band sets up an important test of what comes next. Fail early and the market likely heads toward deeper support near 76,800 USD. Push higher and the next dip could be an opportunity.
Momentum is stretched, sentiment is battered, and on-chain behavior is improving—but the trend remains fragile until price proves otherwise.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term:
Neutral. Our model continues rising, and conditions do not justify fresh entries.
Medium-Term:
Watching for a higher bounce to set up a potential dip-buy toward 76,800 USD. No active position.
Long-Term:
Long. Cycle targets remain intact while the structural floor near 72,000 USD holds.
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