The Bounce That Still Isn’t Safe || Nov 22, 2025
Bitcoin rebounds from 81K toward 85K after dovish Fed signals, but risks linger as key cloud levels, liquidity stress, and a stubborn dollar still hang over markets.
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin’s violent recovery from the 81,000 USD flush came almost immediately after comments from New York Fed President Williams boosted expectations for a December rate cut. The shift revived risk appetite across markets and helped crypto pull back from the edge.
Still, the structure remains fragile. U.S. equities look roughly a week away from finding support, the dollar index is pushing toward a potential blow-off near 101, and volatility remains elevated. Crypto is trying to front-run stabilization, but it needs follow-through.
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⚙️ Technical Picture
Bitcoin’s dip into the weekly Ichimoku cloud finally triggered the bounce technicians have been waiting for. Price respected the cloud bottom near 81,000 USD and pushed back toward 85,000–87,000 USD. A more decisive test sits at 93,000 USD, where cloud resistance and liquidation clusters converge.
The market is also trying to preserve the broader megaphone structure on the daily chart. Closing back inside that formation remains essential; otherwise, the next structural support is uncomfortably lower around 76,600–77,000 USD, per the monthly cloud.
Order-flow maps show thick liquidation bands up to the top of the weekly cloud near 93,000 USD. A successful reclaim there would shift the short-term bias and open the door to 98,000–100,000 USD retests.
📊 On-Chain & Market Flow
On-chain positioning is starting to flash early bottoming traits. The percentage of supply in profit has dropped to levels last seen in 2023’s capitulation pockets—painful in real time, but historically a reset that precedes stronger cycles.
Daily active address activity surged to a new yearly high, hinting at large-holder accumulation even as spot price printed new lows.
Our model remains deeply stretched into caution territory—one of the highest readings of the year—but historically such extremes tend to precede powerful trend reversals once momentum finally turns. Retail traders are also leaning into fresh shorts, improving the asymmetry for upside attempts.
USDT dominance printed a notable reversal candle on the 12-hour chart and hit a major weekly trendline. Any sustained rollover here would act as fuel for a crypto-wide rebound.
💬 Final Thoughts
The bounce off 81,000 USD matters, but it is not yet decisive. Bitcoin must defend the 87,000–90,000 USD zone and work its way back above 93,000 USD to break the immediate downtrend. Macro winds are shifting—dovish hints from the Fed and heavy short positioning help—but price must confirm.
The next few days remain critical as markets digest delayed U.S. labor data, the aftermath of NVIDIA’s earnings, and the final stretch into December’s Fed meeting.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term:
Neutral. A reclaim of 93,000 USD is the first technical requirement before considering fresh directional setups.
Medium-Term:
Long bias intact but high-risk. The trend must stabilize above the mid-cloud region; a deeper push into the 87,000 USD area would strain the structure.
Long-Term:
Long. The broader cycle thesis holds as long as price remains above the 72,000 USD structural floor.
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