The Calm Before the Fed || Oct 28, 2025
Bitcoin slips from $116K as traders brace for Powell’s tone and the next liquidity wave.
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin has started to pull back from the technically important $116,000 level ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision.
With no new data releases, markets are bracing for a cautious Powell — one who may avoid strong forward guidance on policy or rate cuts.
Still, the bigger picture looks constructive. Gold appears to have peaked, and the Dollar Index seems close to a breakdown toward 88.00 — both developments that could provide meaningful support for Bitcoin over the coming months.
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⚙️ Technical Picture
Bitcoin’s rejection from the 50 % Fibonacci retracement zone near $116,000 has brought short-term pressure, but the structure remains technically sound.
The key area to watch is the $110,600–$111,000 range. A strong bounce from this zone and a reclaim of $116K would open the door to $122K.
Failure to hold that support, however, could trigger a deeper test toward $101K–$100K — an area many traders see as the ultimate risk-reward setup for a new leg higher.
Technically, BTC did make a higher high above its mid-October peak, so dips are still being treated as accumulation opportunities rather than trend reversals.
📊 On-Chain & Market Flow
💡 Our model indicates that downside momentum is weakening, though caution remains warranted in the short term.
💡 Funding rates and leverage have started to build again — suggesting the need for a short-term reset before higher levels can hold.
💡 On-chain divergence in active addresses persists around $112K, confirming the importance of this price zone for sentiment recovery.
💡 Overall, liquidity maps still favor the upside, with the last similar GEX setup leading to a run toward $126K earlier this year.
🌍 Global Macro Context
Markets opened the week digesting the newly announced U.S.–China trade framework, which eased tensions and boosted risk appetite.
However, attention has quickly shifted back to the Fed’s decision on Wednesday and Chair Powell’s tone on the future pace of easing.
Recent inflation data came in slightly below expectations, reinforcing bets for a 50 bps total rate cut before year-end.
While the Fed is likely to deliver a modest 25 bps move tomorrow, Powell’s guidance — or lack thereof — will dictate whether liquidity conditions loosen further or pause temporarily.
Globally, risk sentiment remains firm: equity indices hover near record highs, the 10-year yield is steady around 3.97 %, gold has slipped below $4,000, and oil consolidates near $64.
All of this supports a soft-dollar environment, generally positive for crypto liquidity.
💬 Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s pause near $116K is less a failure than a test.
If buyers defend $111K and momentum stabilizes, the door to $122K reopens quickly.
If not, the next flush toward $100K could become the final shakeout before new highs.
Either way, the market remains liquidity-driven — and with gold cooling, the dollar weakening, and a potential Fed cut ahead, the macro winds may soon turn decisively in crypto’s favor.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term (Days) — Neutral / Volatile
Medium-Term (Weeks) — Bullish above $120K
Long-Term (Months) — Cycle target ~ $230K valid unless $72K fails
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