The Calm Before the Test: Bitcoin Eyes 108K as Confidence Creeps Back || Nov 6, 2025
Bitcoin steadies near 104K after macro data lifts sentiment — but the next 48 hours will define if this rebound has legs.
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
After Tuesday’s sell-off, Bitcoin clawed its way back toward 104,000 USD, helped by stronger ADP & ISM Services data and a mild recovery in tech stocks.
AI-linked equities led Wall Street higher, while the Dollar Index finally eased from recent multi-month highs — giving risk assets a moment to breathe.
Markets remain highly sensitive to news from Washington. The ongoing government shutdown still acts as a liquidity drag, but traders recall that when the last shutdown ended in December 2022, Bitcoin surged roughly 50 % over the following three months.
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⚙️ Technical Picture
Bitcoin closed back above its 365-day average, signaling short-term stabilization.
Price structure suggests a pivotal test of 108,000 USD, coinciding with the 50 % Fibonacci retracement of the latest swing.
A firm rejection near 104K would reopen downside risk toward 99K, but a clean break above that zone could accelerate momentum into 113,000 USD.
Momentum divergence across major timeframes supports the idea that bulls still have a shot — provided 103,500 USD holds intraday.
A broadening-wedge setup favors this constructive scenario.
📊 On-Chain & Market Flow
On-chain metrics continue to lean supportive.
The share of Bitcoin supply in profit has sharply reset, often a prerequisite for new accumulation phases. Exchange balances remain historically low, showing that coins are not rushing back to trading venues despite volatility.
Daily-active-address trends point to bullish divergence near 108K–113K zones, while Open Interest clusters around those same levels — implying potential fuel for a breakout if short interest gets squeezed.
Our model indicates that underlying conditions remain constructive yet cautious, consistent with an early-stage rebound rather than a full-fledged rally.
💬 Final Thoughts
The coming two sessions will likely determine whether Bitcoin confirms this stabilization or slips back into the danger zone.
If U.S. policymakers move toward reopening the government, liquidity tailwinds could strengthen the case for a push beyond 108K.
Otherwise, volatility may simply be pausing before another round of stress tests.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term: Neutral / Volatile
Medium-Term: Bullish above 116,800 USD
Long-Term: Cycle target ≈ 230,000 USD unless 72,000 USD fails
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