The Compression Before the Decision: Bitcoin Holds 90K as the Fed Looms
BTC trades defensively near 90K while monthly charts echo 2022 signals and whales quietly accumulate ahead of a pivotal policy week.
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin is hovering around 90,000 USD, with rising global borrowing costs contributing to yesterday’s pullback from 92K. Liquidation maps show a clean gravitational pull toward 87,000 USD, reinforcing a short-term risk-off structure.
Heading into tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision, more than seven million BTC sit at an unrealized loss — a setup reminiscent of the heavy sentiment seen during the 2022 consolidation before the FTX-driven downturn.
Another key line in the sand is 83,000 USD, the average cost basis of major Bitcoin ETFs. A decisive break below that level risks triggering institutional stress.
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⚙️ Technical Picture
The monthly chart provides useful context before the Fed.
A basic uptrend line — drawn across the entire bull cycle — shows that BTC has not yet broken structure. That break only occurs below 76,700 USD. The 12-month moving average highlights 100,800 USD as the meaningful pivot on the topside.
Monthly RSI and MACD, however, look almost identical to their posture in mid-2022 before the next major leg lower. The signals now forming on these indicators warrant caution.
The monthly Bollinger Band offers a single bright spot: BTC remains above the mid-band. But the distance to the lower band is wide, underscoring how vulnerable the structure becomes if momentum slips.
This is one of the reasons sentiment has shifted: the magnitude and speed of the recent decline is no longer consistent with a routine correction.
📊 On-Chain & Market Flow
Despite the bearish high-timeframe signals, whales injected stablecoins into BTC last week, a behavior that historically aligns with sharp short-term upside bursts. Both short-horizon and long-horizon views of this metric confirm the rotation.
This is why the Fed’s liquidity language matters so much tomorrow. Even a subtle shift in tone could create meaningful volatility. Whether that volatility stabilizes into trend is another question entirely — and the weekly close will provide the verdict.
Our momentum model continues drifting lower. The declines are smaller now, signaling that underlying conditions may be improving even as price moves sideways. As long as the model keeps slipping, short-term upward surprises remain possible.
💬 Final Thoughts
The market is in a holding pattern until the Fed speaks. A move toward 87K still aligns with the short-term structure, while the 76–77K region remains a medium-term level worth monitoring if BTC breaks lower.
A temporary rally remains on the table — but whether it lasts depends entirely on tomorrow’s policy message and next week’s inflation data. For now, the charts and flows suggest compression, not trend.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term — Pending
Waiting for clarity. Monitoring potential short setups on ETH and LTC.
Medium-Term — Pending
Leaning bullish on deeper retests. Watching the 76–77K region as a potential reaction zone.
Entry: 82,000 USD
Stop: 82,000 USD
Target: 150,000 USD
Long-Term — Long
Likely to exit if the move toward 96,000 USD fails to launch.
Entry: 79,000 USD
Stop: 65,000 USD
Target: 180,000 USD
Disclaimer: The content of this newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research or consult a professional adviser before making investment decisions.