The Line Holds: Bitcoin Brushes Danger but Walks Away Stronger || Nov 8, 2025
Bitcoin survives another test near 99K as shutdown optimism steadies risk sentiment — a fragile calm before the weekend.
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
Bitcoin narrowly escaped a breakdown yesterday after dipping toward 99,000 USD, the key bear-market trigger zone.
Fresh optimism that the U.S. government shutdown could finally end — amid rising political pressure — helped stabilize prices late in the U.S. session.
Despite another failed vote overnight, crypto has held up surprisingly well, reflecting confidence that Washington will resolve the issue soon — possibly this weekend.
The market’s resilience in the face of political gridlock is itself a bullish tell.
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⚙️ Technical Picture
Bitcoin’s drop to 99K marked yet another perfect 50 % Fibonacci retest between the cycle’s highest daily close and this year’s low.
Historically, such mid-sequence retracements often define continuation zones in bull markets — provided they hold.
The rebound from this area reinforces the case that the recent selloff was a structural test, not a breakdown.
Immediate resistance now sits near 101,000 USD, which triggers a bullish reversal pattern targeting 108,000 USD.
Losing the 98–99K region, however, would open the door to a deeper correction toward 90K — or worse.
📊 On-Chain & Market Flow
Beneath the surface, spot market liquidity has improved. The Bid-to-Ask ratio at 20 % depth — a reading rarely seen outside pre-rally phases — suggests strong absorption by long-term buyers.
Daily Active Address momentum is also turning positive, a classic precursor to sustained upside moves.
Ethereum continues to act as the proxy leader. Its survival of repeated wedge retests implies that the broader market is still defending trend structure.
If ETH climbs toward 3,730–3,760 USD, it would likely correspond with Bitcoin testing the 105,000 USD region.
💬 Final Thoughts
The fact that Bitcoin rejected breakdown levels twice in one week is no small feat.
With retail traders turning cautious and larger players maintaining long exposure, the setup heading into the weekend looks constructively tense — one strong catalyst away from ignition.
Still, the shutdown resolution remains the missing piece.
If that news hits while BTC stays above 100K, the next leg toward 108K–113K could come fast.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Short-Term: Neutral / Volatile
Medium-Term: Bullish above 116,800 USD
Long-Term: Cycle target ≈ 230,000 USD unless 72,000 USD fails
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