Weekly Notes: Bitcoin Holds Key Support as Ethereum Eyes $6K
BTC steadies above $112K, ETH targets $5,200–$6,000, Solana shows breakout potential
🪙 Crypto Market Overview
This week’s session began with a look at the broader market environment. Bitcoin experienced a correction but quickly stabilized above the $112K zone, a level traders are closely watching as a pivot. The short-term risk remains that a failure to hold here could drag prices toward $107K—or even $98K in a worst-case scenario.
On the upside, reclaiming $116–$117K would be a constructive signal, especially with a CME gap sitting near $117K and a major trendline break above $119K potentially opening the door to $140K in the months ahead.
Macro drivers also matter:
U.S. PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred gauge) and upcoming ISM data could move markets.
Stronger business cycle readings would be supportive for risk assets, including crypto.
Seasonal flows suggest positioning could flip bullish as traders return from summer.
Meanwhile, the total crypto market cap is displaying a clear inverted head-and-shoulders formation, with a breakout target initially around $4.6T, and potentially $5.2T if momentum persists. This broader view remains one of the strongest bullish signals for the entire asset class.
📊 Bitcoin (BTC)
Holding above $112K keeps the bullish case intact.
Next milestones: $116–117K, then $124K, with an extended breakout scenario pointing to $140K.
Sustained closes below $112K would weaken the outlook and risk testing sub-$107K levels.
On-chain data shows whales with 100–1,000 BTC wallets remain steady buyers, while retail positioning looks stretched to the long side.
Sentiment toward BTC remains cautious, which historically provides room for upside surprises.
🌐 Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum continues to gain relative market share. Technical structures highlight potential targets around $5,200 and even $6,000 in the coming months.
Key considerations:
Divergences suggest exhaustion may emerge once ETH reaches the $6K–$6.2K zone.
Despite corrections, whale accumulation remains strong.
Daily active address activity, however, has been soft, raising the possibility of a pullback toward $3,500 at some point.
Sentiment toward ETH is surprisingly negative despite strong price performance—a contrarian bullish factor in the short run.
⚡ Solana (SOL)
By popular request, this week’s deep dive focused on Solana:
Price action remains bullish above $210, with patterns suggesting potential upside toward $240–250, and in an extended breakout scenario even $280–300.
A daily exhaustion signal appeared near $219, but evidence suggests the move may not be over.
Risks remain: failure to hold support could drag SOL back toward $194–200.
Network activity shows some divergence—prices rising while active addresses have flattened—indicating possible mid-term pullbacks even within a broader uptrend.
🔑 Key Takeaways
BTC: Needs to hold $112K; reclaiming $116–119K opens path to $140K.
ETH: Targeting $5,200–6,000, but long-term divergences hint at eventual correction.
SOL: Holding above $210 keeps bulls in control, upside toward $240–300 possible.
Macro: U.S. PCE, ISM, and Fed decision could set tone for September.
Market cap: Breakout structure points toward $4.6–5.2T.
📢 Final Note
Market structure remains constructive across major assets, with Bitcoin defending support, Ethereum approaching higher targets, and Solana showing breakout potential. Macro catalysts in the coming week could provide the spark for the next leg higher.
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